Before I jump into this week's sit/start forecasts, I have something to address concerning a team manager in Niners Nation 1, a fantasy league through Fleaflicker. Howtheyscored, aka Howie, aka Guy who got dinked by the Kool-Aid man, made a managerial decision a few weeks ago that crashed waves through the commisioner's office. The transaction: Laurence Maroney was added and Calvin Johnson, aka Megatron, was dropped. Howie's move was not well received by yours truly, and I went off the handle a tad. Weeks later, a the 7-4 Hsawaknow II team faced a 6-4 Deathskin Razors squad awaiting Maroney's Monday Night Match-Up versus the Saints.
Heading into the Monday Night contest, Howie had Laurence Maroney active and ready to roll, and roll Maroney did. My team had a small lead heading into MNF but Maroney crushed my hopes and defeat never tasted so bitter. Luckily, it didn't matter which Team DEF I started, and Howie's brilliance secured himself playoffs spot, while my team hangs on for dear life. So Howie, I applaud your managerial move in the case of Calvin Johnson vs. the League, and apologize for how livid I was after your transaction. I stand by, however, the notion that dropping Antonio Gates was an absolute boner of a move (you knew I had to get that in there at some point). Before I get into anything else, I'd also like to call out the user craftylefty2126, who has been inactive for 3 months now in NN1. I personally don't care if you don't want to win money, but the rest of us active guys have been paying attention all season, so log in and make the appropriate adjustments. Now, onto this week's fantasy forecasts...
Brent Celek TE PHI @ ATL - Well, I suppose it's borderline to call Celek a sleeper at this point in the season, but you may have him as a back-up to one of the bigger name TEs in the league. The Eagles tight end has 601 receiving yards (3rd in the NFC) and 5 TDs on the season (tied for 4th in the NFC). Atlanta struggles to defend the pass, allowing 1.6 PaTDs per game (22nd in the NFL) and 252.6 pass yards per game (27th). With DeSean Jackson questionable after a concussion in Week 12, Celek stands to receive more targets in the pass game, and has always been a threat in the red zone. He'll have a great week against the Falcons, start him over any "big" name TE you've got. Week 12 fantasy forecast: 7 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD
Buffalo Team DEF vs. NYJ - The Jets are pretty brutal in the passing game, averaging 163.1 yards per game (which ranks 30th in the NFL) and have a serious problem turning the ball over. Last week against Carolina, the team lost 2 fumbles and also handed one over via INT. The Jets have the league's 3rd ranked rush attack (161.3 ypg), but have cooled down a bit, averaging 117.7 rush ypg over their last 3 contests. While the Bills own the leagues worst rush defense (165.5 ypg), they ranked 8th against the pass, and allow just 179 pass ypg while at Ralph Wilson Stadium (although Thursday's game is at the Rogers Center in Toronto). Buffalo simply man-handled the Dolphins when it mattered last week, benefiting from 4 INTs (even though they allowed 115 rush yards to Ricky Williams) while limiting Miami to just 14 points. I like Buffalo's chance of having another impressive performance this weekend against the Jets. Week 12 fantasy forecast: 13 points allowed, 2 sacks, 2 INTs, 1 FR
After the jump check out the QBs, WRs, and RBs for this week's fantasy forecast...
QB to Start
Joe Flacco BAL @ GB - The Packers are allowing 1.9 PaTDs per game, and when at home average an even 2.0. Everyone is "Whacko for Flacco" after his performance on Sunday Night Football against the Steelers (289 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 1 FL). Green Bay only allows 192.5 pass ypg (6th in the NFL), but over the past three have averaged 210.3. The Ravens offense is built to limit Flacco making mistakes, and really has benefited, throwing just 8 INTs on the season. After a strong performance on Sunday Night, I expect Flacco to go bonkers on Monday Night in Lambeau. Week 12 fantasy forecast: 250 pass yards, 3 PaTDs, 0 INTs
QB to Sit
Aaron Rodgers GB vs. BAL - Maybe I'm just hating on Rodgers a bit too much after his performance versus San Francisco and Detroit, but I think he's due for a poor performance versus the Ravens. Baltimore defense has been allowing just 172.7 pass ypg of their past three, jumping up to the 12th best in the NFL on the season (211.3 ypg). The Ravens also allow just 1.1 PaTDs per game (tied for 9th) and just 0.7 over the past three games. While two of the QBs they face in that three game span were Cleveland's Brady Quinn and Dennis Dixon filling in for Big Ben, the sandwich game matched them up against Peyton Manning. Manning threw just 1 PaTD compared to his 2 INTs, as the Ravens nearly pulled off the upset. Baltimore's D should give Rodgers problems, and it may be a good idea to bench the former Tedford Pupil. Week 12 fantasy forecast: 220 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 1 INT
WR to Start
Michael Crabtree SF @ SEA - Yeah, I know, I know, I've been continually throwing Crabs into the "Start" section, and one day it'll pay off. This weekend versus the Seahawks he has an absolutely fantastic match-up; Seattle allows 1.8 PaTDs per game, and 240 pass ypg. Crabtree should continue to benefit from San Francisco's Shotgun offense, and would've been an absolute darling last week if not for his dropped TD in the end zone. This week, if the Crab Man gets his hands on a ball in the end zone, it will be good for six. Alex Smith looked very efficient last week, and Crabtree will benefit against the Seahawks. Week 12 fantasy forecast: 6 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD
WR to Sit
Calvin Johnson DET @ CIN - The Bengals have not been messing around on pass defense over their past three games, allowing just 146.7 ypg in that span. Megatron, as mentioned earlier, has been a disappointment since returning from injury. Johnson has been a general disappointment all season long, and the Lions really don't have a great chance at getting into the end zone against the Bengals. Detroit's #1 WR has had two TDs in the past two games, but has just 3 on the season. It's better to leave Megatron out of your lineup, he's been a Decepticon for most of the season anyway. Week 12 fantasy forecast: 4 receptions, 65 yards, 0 TDs
RB to Start
Knowshon Moreno DEN @ KC - The rookie has had at least 80 yards rushing in his last three games, and is due to explode against the Chiefs (even with a wrist injury). Kansas City is ranked 27th against the run on the season and they allow an even 1 rush TD per game. Moreno should be the focal point of the Broncos attack, as Denver tries to win back-to-back games after losing four in a row. The Broncos should get up early, and stay up often behind a strong performance by Morenon on the ground. Start him with confidence, and look for over 100 yards and a score. Week 12 fantasy forecast: 100 rush yards, 1 TD; 2 receptions, 20 yards
RB to Sit
Brandon Jacobs NYG vs. DAL - Jacobs has been nothing short of a fantasy turd this season; when facing the Cowboys don't expect much different. Dallas gives up just 0.4 rush TDs per game and ranks 9th overall against the run. The Giant Bruiser hasn't had a 100-yard effort this season and has scored just 3 TDs. I unfortunately own Jacobs in Niners Nation 1, and may have to suck it up and keep him in the lineup. However, I wouldn't recommend doing so, as I expect Jacobs to lay another egg in terms of fantasy production. Week 12 fantasy forecast: 50 rush yards, 0 TDs; 2 receptions, 15 yards