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Mining your way to fantasy gold - Texans Edition

Special Note: Because of Friday's First Preseason game (Woohoo!) there won't be an MYWFG edition (don't get too excited).  Instead, I'll have the Colts for you on Saturday and begin the AFC West afterwards.  Today the Houston Texans are the focal point, and there have several options to look at.  I'm not a huge fan of taking The Texans QB and relying on him weekly, but there are a couple other "go-to" guys to consider.  Let's see where the Texans were going.

Houston players' ADP in 30 mocks:

  • Andre Johnson WR - Avg. Selection* 13; 100% drafted
  • Steve Slaton RB - Avg. Selection 16; 100% drafted
  • Owen Daniels TE - Avg. Selection 64; 100% drafted
  • Matt Schaub QB - Avg. Selection 70; 100% drafted
  • Kevin Walter WR - Avg. Selection 83; 100% drafted

*-100th selection = 10th pick round 10 (10 man); 6th pick round 9 (12 man); 3rd pick round 8 (14 man)

After the jump, you have no choice but to agree with my forecasts...


Pile on the Pressure

Andre Johnson

This a WR that you can definitely put the onus on to be your WR1 for the entire season, despite 2007's injury.  Aside from 2007, Johnson has played in 16 games 4 times, and 13 in 2005.  Including 2007, Johnson has had at least 60 receptions in each season.  Johnson scored 8 TDs in 2008, and 8 in just 9 games in 2007; I can expect the number to increase in 2009.  The big WR also had 7 games with10 or more receptions in 2008 (an absolute beast in PPR leagues) to go along with 8 100-yard performances (one of which was 207 yards).  The Miami product is one of the few WRs to actually consider in round 1 (along with guys like Fitz and Megatron) as he finished 2nd in WR scoring in '08 (in between Fitz and Megtron).  Getting Johnson at 13 is a great value, and I expect him to finally reach a double digit TD total.  Fantasy Forecast: 1500 total yards, 10 total TDs   

Steve Slaton

I'd put Slaton in the upper half of 2009's RB fantasy class.  In other words, he's worth much more than an ADP of 16.  If you somehow land Slaton around 16, you've netted yourself a RB1 for a value greater than a $0.49 cheeseburger.  Last season, the rookie finished 7th in RB scoring while piling up 1659 total yards and 10 total TDs.  Near the end of the season, while most rookies might slow down, Slaton excelled.  The West Virginia product had 20 or more carries in 5 of his last 6 games averaging 126 total yards per game.  It will be fairly difficult for Slaton to top 2008's debut, but I expect him to match it.  For drafting Slaton, a top 10 pick is certainly not out of the question (and I wouldn't expect him to last until 16 in most leagues).  Fantasy Forecast: 1650 total yards, 10 total TDs

Kevin Walter

Walter had a pretty performance during Andre Johnson's absence in 2007, so it really wasn't surprising to see him have a 2008 that saw him finish 19th amongst WRs in scoring.  With a healthy Johnson playing alongside of him, Walter actually improved his numbers; he scored 4 more TDs (8 total), 99 more yards (899) on just 5 fewer receptions (60).  I certainly think that Walter is a serviceable WR3 in most leagues, even if he's not a week to week stud.  Walter had 2 multi-TD games andjust one contest with 100+ yards.  In 2009, Walter should reach the same totals, because the offense is pretty darn similar to last year's Houston team.  Fantasy Forecast: 850 total yards, 7 total TDs

Maybe a bit Overrated

Matt Schaub

Since joining Houston, and becoming the unquestioned number one QB, Schaub has yet to play in a full season.  In 2007 and 2008, he played in just 11 games each year.  When healthy, Schaub is a fantasy torch; last season he averaged 276 pass yard per contest, and had 7 multi-TD games.  The Texans QB finished 21st amongst QBs in 2008 and 24th in 2007.  Schaub has the numbers in the time he's played to be a good QB1 on a fantasy team, but it'shard to forecast a completely healthy season for the former 3rd round selection.  I'm feeling a bit risky, so I'll forecast Shaub based on a full 16-game slate, just keep in mind he's likely to get hurt at some point.  Fantasy Forecast: 3700 pass yards, 22 PaTDs, 13 INTs

Owen Daniels

For a TE that finished 6th in 2008 and 10th in 2007 amongst TEs, Daniels is getting drafted rather high at 64.  I have projected guys like John Carlson and Visanthe Shiancoe to have better numbers than Daniels, and they can be had much later.  I think a healthy Johnson and Walter keep the ball out of Daniels' hands in 2009, as both WRs are pretty big targets in the redzone.  Daniels set career highs in catches and yards, but scored just 2 TDs last season.  In three total seasons, his career high for TDs is 5.  I expect Daniels to drop a bit yardage wise in 2009, and I don't recommend investing a top 65 pick on him considering late value of other fantasy TEs.  Fantasy Forecast: 700 total yards, 3 TDs

I left him off for a reason

Kris Brown, kicker for the Texans, was omitted intentionally from my mock results.  Brown is a good choice as your fantasy K, make no mistake about it.  I just feel that the ADP of a kicker isn't as important as the other players.  It'sup to you when to take a kicker (I'm not a big fan of kickers), because I don't ever recommendusing a pick inside round 13 on one.  Brown has a streak of 3 straight FG-less games in 2008, but kicked 3 FGs in 5 games and 2 FGs in 6 additional contests.  Also, 10 connected from 40+ making Brown a very reliable K week in, week out.  Fantasy Forecast: 28 FGM, 42 XPM

Ask the Nation

Are the Houston Texans dark horses for the AFC Playoff Picture?

* all fantasy stats are based on 2007-2008 Yahoo! Standard Public league scoring