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San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Open Thread

Th_cardinals_icon_medium @ 49ers_logo_medium

Date: September 13, 2009
Time: 1:15pm PST
Location: University of Phoenix Stadium, Phoenix, AZ
Records: 49ers (0-0) Cardinals (0-0) Spread: Cardinals -6; Over/Under 46; Money Line: 49ers +215, Cardinals -255 - It's pretty tough to tell whether to go with the over or not. The Cardinals can obviously score, but who knows if the 49ers can put sufficient points up. I'm going 49ers and the under. Even if the 49ers don't win, I could see this coming down to a field goal or two.Weather: 98°F, 8mph SSW Wind (I'm guessing the stadium will be closed because of the heat)
TV Broadcast: FOX - Sam Rosen, Tim Ryan, Nischelle Turner
Radio: 107.7 The Bone, 680/1050 KNBR - Ted Robinson, Gary Plummer, Rod Brooks
Spanish Radio
: KIQI 1010-AM, KATD 990-AM - Mathias Godinez, Melvin Moran, Marcos Gutierrez
Cardinals Coverage:
Revenge of the Birds

Week 1 Prediction Contest: If you missed out on the morning games, you can still make predictions for tonight and tomorrow.

Sports Bar Thread

49ers: Out - LB Ahmad Brooks (knee), WR Brandon Jones (shoulder)

Cardinals: Probable - WR Sean Morey (Ribs), WR Steve Breaston (Knee), S Matt Ware (Shoulder); Questionable - WR Anquan Boldin (Hamstring), WR Early Doucet (Ribs), QB Brian St. Pierre (Back)

49ers: Nate Davis (3rd QB), WR Brandon Jones, LB Ahmad Brooks, DB Curtis Taylor, DL Ricky Jean-Francois, OL Cody Wallace, DB Reggie Smith and WR Jason Hill

Cardinals: Brian St. Pierre (third QB), WR Steve Breaston, CB Greg Toler, LB Reggie Walker, G/T Herman Johnson, G/T Brandon Keith, WR Early Doucet and TE Dominique Byrd.

And so it begins. The 49ers 2009 campaign gets underway with probably their biggest rival at this point. The 49ers face the Cardinals to open the season for the fourth straight seaon (L-W-L in the previous 3). A win over Arizona will definitely be tough, but it would be so huge to get some early momentum for this season, particularly with Seattle coming to town next week.

A couple quick reminders in this the first regular season game thread. First, when responding to what somebody else has said, please make sure and click the reply button. We're hoping to have a lot of comments today so we want to keep the conversation's as clear and straight forward as possible.

Second, I'll have a post-game recap shortly after the game, so no need to throw up a quick FanPost with your thoughts on the game. We'll have a forum for that discussion very quickly after the game.


After the jump, Florida Danny has provided us with some quick insight on the preseason and winning preseason games

Courtesy of our man Florida Danny:

Preseason Results 2002-2008*

Record # of Teams # that Made Playoffs # that Won Week 1
0-4 12 0 (0.0%) 5 (41.7%)
1-3 53 14 (26.4%) 23 (43.4%)
2-2 76 35 (46.1%) 43 (56.6%)
3-1 49 17 (34.7%) 24 (49.0%)
4-0 12 7 (58.3% 4 (33.3%

*Only includes 202 team preseasons w/ 4 games & no ties
Here's a table showing what kind of regular season success teams with various preseason records have had since the NFL switched to its current 8-division alignment. A you can see, no team since 2002 has gone 0-4 in the preseason and then made the playoffs that season. This isn't good news for Arizona, which means it's good news for the 49ers. And we like good news around here.

As far as the 49ers' 3-1 preseason record goes, there's pretty much no statistical effect on the regular season. The probability of any team making the playoffs simply by random chance is 12 out of 32, or 37.5%, while the "dumb-luck" probability of any team winning Week 1 is obviously 50%. The pobabilities in the table for teams with a 3-1 preseason record are not meaningfully different from just picking teams out of a hat.

So basically, the one preseason record that an NFL team should do whatever it can to avoid is 0-4. Obviously, no team wants to go 0-4. But recent NFL history tells us it foretells an end to their season after their 16th game.