Fooch's Note: We'll have an open thread up at 11:45am for Kurt Warner's noon press conference to discuss his future (link to live stream included).
While surfing around SB Nation Football sites, I came across a link to an interesting website called AdamJT13. The site purports to predict the types of compensatory picks that each NFL team will receive for the upcoming draft. Apparently he's done this ten times, and over his last seven projections he's averaged 23.9 out of 32 correct. There's no baseline to compare what would be a "good percent," but that's not too shabby I suppose. The post I just linked gives a description of what he's done to try and figure out a formula that is never released.
Back in December, he looked at the NFC South and NFC West and made some projections. For the 49ers he said:
San Francisco — The 49ers should get one comp pick, with a very small chance that they'll get two. They signed three players who qualify and lost four who qualify and one who is on the bubble but almost certainly will not qualify. Their comp pick would be in the sixth or seventh round, most likely the seventh. If they do get a second comp pick, it would be in the seventh.
How did he come up with this? Well, in an earlier look at signings that would fall into the necessary categories, he said about the 49ers:
SAN FRANCISCO
Lost – WR Bryant Johnson, NT Ronald Fields, QB J.T. O’Sullivan, CB Donald Strickland, TE Billy Bajema (low bubble), TE Sean Ryan (NQ), DT Damane Duckett (cut)
Signed – WR Brandon Jones, RB Moran Norris, DE Demetric Evans, T Marvel Smith (retired), LB Marques Harris (NQ, cut 10/28)
If Billy Bajema helps get them another compensatory pick, that would be pretty sweet. He was always a solid blocking tight end, but not much more, so even a 7th round pick due to his departure would be impressive. That and it would count against the St. Louis Rams, who signed Bajema.
We'll have to wait and see as I believe compensatory picks are announced at the spring owners meeting in late March.