I spent yesterday updating our 2010 49ers Mock Draft Database and thought I'd look at a few of the changes and similarities since I last updated in on January 30. Our database includes 30 mock drafts. There are databases out there with hundreds of mocks, but I think 30 gives us a good number with which to work. I don't know if it is all that statistically significant, but it's something to work with and play around with, as far as analysis goes.
Over the last two weeks we really haven't seen any major changes to the database. On 1/30, 24 mocks had the 49ers drafting an offensive tackle, while yesterday's update saw 26 mocks having the 49ers draft an offensive tackle. Both editions saw 11 mocks that included a safety.
The biggest change saw Trent Williams leap from sixth among potential players (selected 5 times) to first among potential players (selected 11 times). Bryan Bulaga was selected two more times, both in the first round. Your additional offensive tackles includedand Bruce Campbell.
Since the season ended, much of the draft discussion has centered around the need for help on the offensive line. There has been some debate about waiting into the second round if you're just looking for a right tackle. Even with only 30 mocks, the consensus is clearly apparent. Of those 26 mocks with the 49ers drafting an OT, none involve OTs with both picks. So 87% of our mocks have the 49ers taking an OT. McShay's last mock didn't have the 49ers taking an OT with either pick, but he did project guard Mike Iupati. That would put us at 90% of mocks selecting an offensive lineman. If we expanded our mocks to 50 or 100 or 500, I wouldn't be surprised to see that percentage stay north of 80%, if not right close to the 87%.
Aside from McShay, the 3 mocks that had no new offensive lineman for the 49ers had the following pairings:
For those wondering, New Era had the 49ers taking guard Jon Asamoah in the second round and OT Selvish Capers in the third round. FF had the 49ers selecting Jason Pierre-Paul in the second round. S2S did not have a second round in their mock.
At this point, i wouldn't expect any significant change in mocks until after the combine gets over with, followed by the beginning of free agency. The combine will affect player rankings and a bit of positional rankings (particular for teams going BPA). Free agency will affect positional rankings since teams will be filling potential holes. With the Combine starting Wednesday February 24, I'm thinking I'll update the mocks that prior Monday night so we have a baseline heading into the Combine.