The folks at Football Outsiders released their weekly playoff odds report and the 49ers made a slight move upwards thanks to their win against the Detroit Lions. It didn't go up a lot because there is simply not enough space for big jumps. They currently have a 99.0% chance of making the NFL playoffs this year. At this point, losses by the Seahawks and Cardinals this weekend will nudge up that .0% a little bit.
It gets a little more interesting when you consider some of the possibilities beyond just the playoffs. I don't want to get too far ahead, but with playoff odds I figure we're just talking about numbers. Nothing wrong with chatting about that. Don't worry karma, nothing to see here.
I've posted the NFC West odds after the jump. For now, the 49ers actually have a 72.5% chance of earning a first round bye. The top teams in regards to potential byes include the Packers at 69.5%, the Giants at 13.3%, and the Saints are at 14.0%. The Lions are at 16.3% but have to deal with the Packers the rest of the way.
FO also provides Super Bowl and draft odds. The 49ers currently have the second highest odds of making the Super Bowl, sitting at 17.3% behind the Packers at 17.5%. The Patriots follow the 49ers at 12.5%. It is also interesting to note that the 49ers have a 1.4% chance of finishing 15-1. We'll be breaking down the schedule a bit more in the coming days, but there are definitely some tough matchups in there. Ravens, Giants, Redskins and Steelers are all difficult. Mix in five divisional matchups and an up and down Cleveland Browns squad and it makes for an intriguing schedule.
For those that are a little bit curious, FO wraps up their odds with a breakdown of "Special Super Bowl Matchups." The 49ers are starting to get mixed in there with the Harbaugh Bowl at 7.0% and the Bay Area Bowl at 2.7%. I tweeted Aaron Schatz about a potential third 49ers-Bengals Super Bowl and I think he'll get that in next week. I'd imagine those odds are pretty slim.
Just so folks don't think of this as counting chickens before they hatch, this is just a matter of looking at some fun odds. FO determines their odds after running the season 10,000 times. Wins and losses are assigned using a combination of DAVE ratings for each team and home field advantage in every single game to come up with odds following each week.
As it currently stands, the 49ers rank second overall in DVOA, ranked 18th in offense, third in defense and first in special teams. Even if the 49ers continue their strong run, the rankings will likely take a dip as their schedule strength comes back to earth. They've played a very tough schedule to date and DVOA reflects that.
NFC West
| Team | Rec | DAVE | Mean Ws | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 5-1 | 21.1% | 11.7 | 35.9% | 36.6% | 16.6% | 9.0% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 98.1% | 72.5% | 0.9% | 99.0% | 1.5% |
| SEA | 2-3 | -16.6% | 6.6 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | -2.7% |
| ARI | 1-4 | -25.8% | 4.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.6% |
| STL | 0-5 | -30.6% | 3.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.2% |