During football season, there are times I believe in jinxes and times I try to talk myself out of believing in them. This is one pattern I'll continue to roll with until proven otherwise. For the past two weeks I've posted about the Football Outsiders playoff odds. For the past two weeks the 49ers have won. I don't think I need to explain why I will continue to post the playoff odds.
Football Outsiders released their latest playoff odds and they have the 49ers holding the second best odds in the NFL at 89.1%. The 49ers sit second to the Green Bay Packers (92.8%). Thanks to the truly awful nature of the NFC West, winning back-to-back road non-division games has put the 49ers in an excellent position. There is plenty of time for them to join the Red Sox and blow huge playoff chances, but the numbers say what they say for now.
For those wondering how FO determines their odds, they reflect FO running the season 10,000 times. Wins and losses are assigned using a combination of DAVE ratings for each team and home field advantage in every single game to come up with odds following each week.
FO also released their latest DVOA ratings, which now reflect opponent adjustments (added in after week four every year). The 49ers rank 11th in Total DVOA. They are second on special teams, seventh on defense and No. 23 on offense. The 49ers offense did enough to get the W in the second half of the Eagles game, but the DVOA does reflect the inconsistencies we've seen at times. However, I think the offensive DVOA will rise as the season moves along and the game-planning and execution continues to develop.
| Team | Rec | DAVE | Mean Ws | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 3-1 | 6.1% | 9.8 | 7.4% | 15.4% | 22.1% | 43.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 88.3% | 22.8% | 0.9% | 89.1% | 14.4% |
| ARI | 1-3 | -13.6% | 6.1 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 6.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 7.0% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 8.4% | -11.2% |
| SEA | 1-3 | -23.2% | 5.6 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 3.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 4.8% | -3.8% |
| STL | 0-4 | -29.8% | 3.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | -1.9% |