Football Outsiders released their latest playoff odds Tuesday afternoon and they have the 49ers listed at 100%. Apparently, someone forgot to tell the 49ers to pop the champagne corks. But seriously, they actually had the odds at 99.95% but could only show one decimal over, so they rounded up. Personally, I'd say they should have rounded down to 99.9%, but I suppose now this means I can "round up" a bottle of champagne? Thank you, I'll be here all week.
The most significant odds from FO's list would have to be the 80.1% chance of earning a first round bye. It remains to be seen if the 49ers can do enough (or the Packers can actually lose) to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs. But if the 49ers just keep on winning, it really doesn't matter. The New York Giants have a 16.2% chance of securing a first round bye, but if the Giants won this Sunday, those odds would change dramatically.
The 49ers find themselves in a crazy situation in the NFC given how well the Green Bay Packers are playing this season. The Packers currently lead FO's NFC Champs odds at 34.7%, with the 49ers second at 29.2%. The Packers Super Bowl win odds are 19.5% and the 49ers are at 15.2%.
The Harbowl (Ravens-49ers) has the highest odds at 6.4%. The lead up to Thanksgiving will be pretty crazy, but thankfully will only be four full days of hype. There will be hype before that, but the machine will be focused those four days. If there was a Harbaugh Brothers Super Bowl, it would be absolutely ridiculous through Media Week. But, let's not get ahead of ourselves! Not yet at least.
Speaking of which, at this point, with the 49ers playing some solid football and looking more and more like a playoff team, how do you control the thoughts of what could be? Or do you even bother and instead just roll with it hoping/expecting the best? After years of taking it on the chin, the 49ers are finally winning games they should win and taking control of a weak division.
It really is quite easy to get way too excited and I've had that happen to me as much as anybody. Do you try and fight the feeling? After I took the bar exam last year, I generally felt as though I had done OK, but I didn't want to get too excited for fear of the potential for letdown. Every time I had a positive thought thinking I had passed, I tried to bat it down as quickly as possible. It may have been a little bit irrational, but I suppose I'm a slightly irrational person at times.
NFC West
| Team | Rec | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 7-1 | 22.5% | 12.5 | 36.0% | 44.1% | 14.0% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 99.9% | 80.1% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.1% |
| SEA | 2-6 | -19.8% | 5.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | -1.1% |
| ARI | 2-6 | -24.0% | 4.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| STL | 1-7 | -35.4% | 3.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |