Football Outsiders and numberFire.com via ESPN Insider both provided updated NFL playoff odds as we head into week nine, and not too surprisingly, the 49ers are pretty close to maxing out their playoff chances. The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals continued throwing up a goose egg and the San Francisco 49ers moved a step closer to locking up the NFC West.
The current FO odds for the 49ers to earn a playoff berth are at 99.9%. Their odds of winning the division sit at 99.8%. The second place Seahawks travel to face the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday and I suspect a Seahawks loss and a 49ers win would be enough to nudge their division odds up to 99.9% as well. The folks at ESPN/numberFire.com have the 49ers overall odds at 99.8% and slotted in as the number two seed.
It is worth noting that the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves both had playoff odds of higher than 99% at different times in September, only to fall apart down the stretch. That has stuck in the back of my mind as the 49ers playoff odds have climbed each week. Of course, then I remember that the Red Sox and Braves did not play in the NFC West.
The division has had plenty of highlights over the years, but in recent years it really has been quite abysmal. It "peaked" last year with a 7-9 division champ. This year, it is not entirely out of the realm of possibility for the 49ers to end up with nearly as many wins as the rest of the division combined. There's still a lot of time left before that happens, but it is not a pretty picture.
The Rams currently sit at the bottom of the NFC West, but I would not be at all surprised to see them end the season in second place. They have all six divisional games remaining, including a season finale with the 49ers. They have had their struggles but a healthy Steven Jackson can help carry that offense. I think at this point, in spite of only recently getting their first win, they are the second best team in the division. Whether that is saying much is another question entirely, but I still think they are an interesting team to watch as they enter the second half of their schedule.
NFC West
| Team | Rec | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 6-1 | 25.2% | 12.2 | 37.6% | 44.4% | 12.7% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 99.8% | 82.1% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 0.3% |
| SEA | 2-5 | -18.6% | 5.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | -1.7% |
| ARI | 1-6 | -25.9% | 4.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| STL | 1-6 | -38.1% | 3.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |