With the combine wrapping up, I finally have enough information to unveil the most anticipated mock draft of the season . . . the next mock draft that you read. After countless hours of collecting information on the internet I finally have enough data to guess blindly. That’s what’s so hard about making a mock draft, you have to know so much in order to be so wrong. At the very least though, I can promise that my draft will be as accurate as Mel Kiper’s and probably Todd McShay’s and any other analyst out there. The mock draft is like gambling in Vegas, we all get lucky once, but over time you’re guaranteed to lose. Oh, and one last thing before the jump, I didn’t factor in trades. I’m about 99% certain the 49ers will trade at some point in the draft, so I decided I must be wrong.
Here's the short list for those of you skimming. 49ers pick numbers factor in my estimate of comp picks.
30th Pick – OG –Kevin Zeitler / Kelechi Osemele
62nd Pick – WR – not sure who
94th Pick – RB – Chris Polk
127th Pick – FS – Trent Robinson
161st Pick – WR – Jeff Fuller
197th pick – TE – James Hanna
232nd pick – QB – Kellen Moore
30th Pick – OG –Kevin Zeitler (Wisconsin) / Kelechi Osemele (IowaState)
Kevin Zeitler Stats: 6’4", 314lbs, 5.39 (40), 32 (Bench), 32.75 (arm length)
Kelechi Osemele Stats: 6’6", 333lbs, 5.36 (40), 32 (Bench), 35.875 (arm length).
Why I chose Guard: Chilo Rachal is out, Snyder is a good versatile backup, but he’s a backup. We need a solid guard to help Davis develop in the RT he was drafted to be.
Why I would chose Kevin Zeitler over Kelechi Osemele: Osemele is taller, heavier, has longer arms and is just as strong and just as fast as Kevin Zeitler. On paper Osemele has a much high ceiling and looks like a much better guard. But there are rumblings that he has weight issues, doesn’t play through the whistle, only has average lateral movement, has a problem with false starts, and questionable natural instincts. In other words, you have to interview the guy and his coaches to really know whether or not he can develop into a solid option. Since I can’t interview him, I have to assume the worst. From my view point at best he’s another Anthony Davis, at worst he’s another Chilo Rachal. Kevin Zeitler has great run blocking technique, his strength is picking up short yardage, he has great awareness, knows his blocking angles and has enough strength to start from day one. At best Zeitler will turn into an above average NFL starter (probably never pro-bowl), at worst Zeitler will turn into another Snyder, which is a risk I’m willing to take.
62nd Pick – WR – Baalke’s Patient Pick
There are a million articles out there over why the 49ers need a WR and which WR the 49ers should take. By the 30th pick the top 3 WRs will be off the board, and it’s too early to get the rest, but the 62nd may be too late, 7 or 8 WRs may be off the board. Baalke’s mantra is patience, and that’s what I think we’ll see, patience to get a solid WR pick, whoever’s left, at the end of the second.
94th Pick – RB – Chris Polk (Washington)
Chris Polk Stats: 5’11", 215lbs, 4.46 (40), 31.5 Vertical, 9’3" Broad, 9.75 hands.
Why I Chose an RB: Gore had 1200+ yards this season, but he got most of those yards in a 5 game stretch, and it felt like he was missing for 4-6 games. 49ers could really use another power back to develop into Gore’s replacement.
Why I chose Chris Polk: Polk had a poor senior bowl and poor combine (except for his 40), has had two shoulder surgeries (which is why he didn’t bench at the combine) and a knee scope. I’m hoping this will cause him to fall to the end of the third.
Polk is the perfect heir apparent for Gore. Drafted in the late third round there would be no pressure to start next year, he could slowly work in. Polk is a great North/South runner, good cut back, and fast enough. As a receiver he has good hands, balance, and good vision for screen passes. His best attributes as a runner are his ability to break tackles to get yards after contact, keep the ball safe in the pile, and his blocking. He’s a physical back, already graduated from college and has a clean record. In other words, he’s a 49ers type of guy.
127th Pick – FS – Trent Robinson (MichiganState)
Trent Robinson Stats: 5’10", 195lbs, 31.5 (arm length), 15 (Bench Reps)
Why I chose FS: I don’t think Reggie Smith will be back, I think he’ll leave to compete for the starting position elsewhere, leaving absolutely not depth at the FS position.
Why I chose Trent Robinson: Robinson has almost everything it would take to be a CB in the NFL, just lacks a little hip fluidity. Played FS in college due to his physicality, he’s capable of laying big hits. Great cover skills for a safety and great ball skills. He can tackle, and as third safety on the field in obvious passing situations, he’d be a great asset. Hard-working, team leader, 49ers kind of player.
161st – WR – Jeff Fuller (Texas A&M)
Jeff Fuller Stats: 6’4", 223lbs, DNP in combine due to injury
Why I chose a Second WR: 49er WR corps needs help, and given salary cap issues with Willis’ 17 million (even though it was restructured), Carlos Rogers, and the dearth of good WR FAs, I think we pick up two WRs in this draft.
Why I chose Jeff Fuller: Jeff Fuller Sr. was a safety for the 49ers who was partially paralyzed in 1989. Jeff Fuller Jr.’s interviews show that he’s got great work ethic from his father. Fuller Jr. had a great 2010 season but then was hampered in 2011 by a nagging hamstring injury, which also kept him from running in the combine. If he was healthy I think he’d be a 2nd/3rd round pick. Runs great routes, has a good vertical for the jump balls, can get separation, strong hands, and good blocking skills. I think he has the history and work ethic to be a 49er and could be a late round steal.
197th – TE – James Hanna (Oklahoma)
James Hanna Stats: 6’4", 252lbs, 36 (Bench), 4.49 (40)
Why I chose TE: Nate Byham’s knee injury means the spot is wide open for a good blocking TE. Justin Peele was ok, but seemed like we need at upgrade.
Why I chose James Hanna: Hanna has the size, strength and speed to be a great blocking TE in the NFL. And who knows, maybe he can catch.
232nd – QB – Kellen Moore (BoiseState)
Kellen Moore Stats: 6’0", 197lbs, 4.94 (40), 9.5in (hands)
Why I chose QB: We could use a solid QB for camp. This pick is only 7 or 8 spots above Mr. Irrelevant, so taking a QB would simply save the FO the hassle of getting a decent UDFA QB to the 49ers. Also, Tolzien was a UDFA last year and he could use some real competition for the third roster spot.
Why I chose Kellen Moore: Harbaugh said "[Moore] is a proven winner, that’s got to count for something." And I think it does. Moore’s record as a 4 year starter was 50-3. That’s worth a 7th round pick. Moore is a hard worker and has the "it" factor, which will push Tolzien to be better, and may even win the 3rd QB spot. Frankly, I would be shocked if some other team didn’t pick up Moore in the 6th round, despite his lack of tangible athletic ability.