NFL Picks, Week 4: 49ers best be covering

It's time for Week 4 NFL picks following a Week 3 that I don't think anybody saw coming. It was one of the worst performances I think I've ever had as I finished 5-10-1 against the spread. I did manage to go 7-9 straight-up so I guess it could have been worse. Not much worse, but definitely worse.

The 49ers head into Met Life Stadium as 4 1/2 point favorites after opening as field goal favorites. I would imagine some of that change came upon news that Darrelle Revis was indeed lost for the year. In the 49ers-Jets Google Hangout yesterday, Scott from Gang Green Nation had plenty to say on the issue of Revis. And now that the Jets are switching running back Joe McKnight to cornerback, this all just gets that much more odd.

I do think the 49ers can cover this 4 1/2 point spread, and really I would be disappointed if they did not. The Jets are not a walk in the park, but the 49ers are better. There aren't "must-win" games at this point, but this is definitely a "shouldn't lose" type of game. The 49ers need to impose their will, which is something they really did not seem to be doing sufficiently last Sunday against the Vikings.

In a sign that I obviously did not learn my lesson last week, I do not have a whole lot of upsets this week. My two big "upsets" are the Bills winning at home against the Patriots and the Chiefs winning at home against the Chargers. I should probably be picking more upsets, but I'm just not getting that in my gut right now. I'm sure it'll bite me in the butt. Spreads come from the SB Nation NFL Odds page.

Browns @ Ravens (-13): Ravens cover

Panthers @ Falcons (-7.5): Falcons cover

Patriots (-4.5) @ Bills: Bills win outright

Vikings @ Lions (-4.5): Lions cover

Titans @ Texans (-12): Texans cover

Chargers (-1) @ Chiefs: Chiefs win outright

49ers (-4.5) @ Jets: 49ers cover

Seahawks (-3) @ Rams: Seahawks cover

Dolphins @ Cardinals (-6): Cardinals cover

Raiders @ Broncos (-6.5): Broncos cover

Bengals (-2.5) @ Jaguars: Bengals cover

Saints @ Packers (-8): Packers cover

Redskins @ Bucs (-3): Bucs cover

Giants @ Eagles (-1): Eagles cover

Bears @ Cowboys (-3.5): Cowboys cover

Overall Record
Versus the spread: 21-24-2
Overall: 28-19