The San Francisco 49ers host the Atlanta Falcons next Monday in their home finale, and likely the final game in Candlestick Park history. The 49ers are rolling, having won four straight games to improve to 10-4. The Falcons have actually won two of their last three games, but that has only served to hurt a higher draft status. They are currently 4-10, and in a logjam with four other teams.
The Falcons troubles are reflected in the spread for this game. The 49ers are currently a 12-point favorite. The line opened in some places at ten, but everybody now has it in the 12- to 13-point range. It's interesting to compare this spread with the five point spread the 49ers had against the Bucs last week. The 49ers were on the road, but the spread still reflected a Bucs squad that had won four of five games. Oddsmakers don't seem to put quite as much faith in a pair of wins over Washington and Buffalo.
The 49ers are 10-4 overall, but also 10-4 against the spread. They have split evenly in the over/under, going over and under each seven times. Due to their generally strong defense, their over/unders have point relatively low. This week, it's 45 total points. There are six other games lower than that. The Steelers-Packers game has no line because Aaron Rodgers is currently a question mark.
If the 49ers put together an effort like they did against Tampa Bay, I think they can cover this spread. Slipups like we saw on the two touchdown drives wouldn't be particularly helpful, but the 49ers are coming together at the right time, while the Falcons are scuffling along. Yes, they've won two of three, but they're just not a good football team right now. I suppose they could overlook the Falcons, but given that they didn't overlook Tampa Bay, I feel fairly comfortable with that. Given that it is likely the final home game in Candlestick Park history, it will be interesting to see how fired up they are on the field. One guy already seems psyched:
I grew up a big time 49ers fan. Amazing to know I may be playing in the last game at candlestick this week.— jonathan goodwin (@jgoody59) December 17, 2013