Why Kaepernick is Without a Doubt the #1 Young QB


Loved David Fucillo's article on the subject. Read it a little late and took me a while to do some research. It's buried deep in the comment section so I decided to repost it here with some additional information and analysis. I threw Cam "Fig" Newton in there too.

- Included a comparison for each players first 10 career starts for an easier comparison to Kaep's 10 starts.
- I included Cam's first 10 starts of this season, in the first section, as a way to gauge who's better right now.
- I included all games started by each player. Therefore, I disregarded Kaepernick's stats before his 1st start. This was to make it a bit easier to compare the players as starters.
- Playoff games are included in all game averages.
- Most importantly, I included two sets of stats for Robert Griffin(Before injury vs All games started) "Before injury" games include all games prior to the BAL game. Didn't want to hear any

First 10 Career Starts

Kaep: 2,406 passing yards. 566 Rushing yards. 14 Passing td’s. 6 Rushing td’s.
RG3: 2,193 passing yards. 613 Rushing yards. 12 Passing td’s. 6 Rushing td’s.
Luck: 2,965 passing yards. 163 Rushing yards. 12 Passing td’s. 5 Rushing td’s.
Russ: 1,827 Passing yards. 189 Rushing yards. 15 Passing td’s. 0 Rushing td’s.
*Cam: 2,395 Passing yards. 394 Rushing yards. 9 Passing td's. 4 Rushing td's.


1. Kaep: 2,972 total yards. 20 td’s (Only 156 yards behind Luck but more td’s than the rest) (advantage)
2. Luck: 3,128 total yards. 17 td’s
3. Wilson: 2,016 total yards. 15 td’s
4. RG3: 2,806 total yards. 18 td’s
5. Cam: 2,789 total yards. 13 td's

Game Averages(respective starts)

Kaep: 2,406 Passing Yards = 240 yards/game
Luck: 4,662 Passing Yards = 274 yards/game (advantage)
Wilson: 3,690 Passing Yards = 205 yards/game
RG3: 3,284 Passing yards = 205 yards/game
Before Injury: 2,660 Passing yards = 221 yards/game
Cam: 3,869 Passing yards = 241 yards/game

Yards Per Attempt:(including playoffs)

Kaep: 8.84 (advantage)
Luck: 6.8
Wilson: 8.10
RG3: 7.97
Before Injury: 8.18
Cam: 7.9


TD Passes per Game:(including playoffs)

Kaep: 1.4
Luck: 1.35
Wilson: 1.6 (advantage)
RG3: 1.37
Before Injury: 1.4
Cam: 1.18

Total TD’s per Game:(including playoffs)

Kaep: 1.9 (advantage)
Luck: 1.64
Wilson: 1.88
RG3: 1.81
Before Injury: 1.89
Cam: 1.68

Average Total Yards per Game:

Kaep: 297.2(advantage)
Luck: 291.2
Wilson: 239.2
RG3: 257.5
Before Injury: 281.1
Cam: 288.1


Through 16 games(Kaep’s extrapolated)
Kaep: 4,036 Passing Yards. 735 Rushing Yards. 22 Passing td’s. 10 Rushing td’s.(Assuming he wouldn’t get any better)
Luck: 4,374 Passing Yards. 255 Rushing Yards. 23 Passing td’s. 5 Rushing td’s.
Wilson: 3,118 Passing Yards. 489 Rushing Yards. 26 Passing td’s. 4 Rushing td’s.
RG3: 3,284 Passing Yards. 836 Rushing Yards. 22 Passing td’s. 7 Rushing td’s.
Cam: 3,869 Passing Yards. 741 Rushing Yards. 19 Passing td's. 8 Rushing td's.

Interceptions(including playoffs)

Kaep: 5 = 0.5/gm
Luck: 19 = 1.11/gm
Wilson: 11 = 0.61/gm
RG3: 5 = 0.31/gm (advantage)
Before Injury:
4 = 0.33/gm
Cam: 12 = 0.75/gm

Completion %(including playoffs)

Kaep: 62.1
Luck: 53.8
Wilson: 63.9
RG3: 65.0 (advantage)
Before Injury:
67.0 <-- even better
Cam: 57.7
* RG3 was dead last in yards traveled per attempt. 56% of his yards came after the catch, most in the NFL. Almost 60% of his passes went to the backfield. Only 9% of his passes went over 20 yards. That's the 2nd lowest percentage among starters in the NFL(only behind Christian Ponder).


Total QBR.

Colin Kaepernick,
SF 76.8 (advantage)

Andrew Luck, IND 65.0

Russell Wilson, SEA 69.6

Robert Griffin III,
WSH 71.4

Cam Newton, CAR 54.2

* QBR takes into account statistics about passing, rushing, and all types of turnovers. It also takes into account a "clutch" factor where successful plays are more valuable if the game is on the line rather than the game being a blowout.

Passer Rating

Kaep: 98.3
Luck: 76.5
Wilson: 100.0
RG3: 102.4 (advantage)
Cam: 86.2

Contributing Factors

Time of Possession
Niners: 31:13
Colts: 30:52
Seahawks: 31:24 (slight advantage)
Redskins: 30:45
Panthers: 29:50



Points Per Game Given Up:(only games started by these particular players, including playoffs)

235 = 23.5 pts/gm
Colts: 411 = 24.1 pts/gm
Seahawks: 289 = 16.0 pts/gm (advantage)
Redskins: 391 = 24.4 pts/gm (0.9 more than SF)
Panthers: 363 = 22.6 pts/gm
*Only included the 10 games Kaepernick started.
I love the people that have the temerity to claim that had RG3 had SF's' defense that he would have taken them to the Super Bowl. San Fransisco, with Kaepernick starting, only gave up 0.9 fewer points per game than Washington's averaged throughout the season. Are they trying to tell me that had the Redskins defense given up 0.9 fewer points per game that they would have been in the Super Bowl? They were that close? Somebody's been eating too much maca.


Points per Game
(including playoffs)

Niners: 288 = 28.8 pts/gm (advantage)
Colts: 366 = 21.5 pts/gm
Seahawks: 464 = 25.7 pts/gm
Redskins: 412 = 25.7 pts/gm
With healthy rg3: 312 = 26 pts/gm
Panters: 357 = 22.3 pts/gm
*Sorry to keep mentioning this but this only includes Kaepernick's 10 starts.

Top 5 Most Impressive Individual Performances (personal opinion)

1. Niners vs Patriots

- Gave Patriots 1st December home loss in over a decade(2002)
- Kaepernick averaged one td pass every 6 pass attempts
- Outplaying Brady, in Foxborough, in only his 5th career start
- Kaepernick: 221 yards, 4 TD's, 1 INT

2. Niners vs Packers

- Only qb ever to throw for 250+ yards and 150+ rushing yards in a playoff game.
- NFL record 181 rushing yards for a qb in in any game
- Kaepernick outplayed the reigning MVP to the tune of 444 Total yards, 4 TD's

3. Seahawks vs Falcons

- The game that made me dread the thought of Russell Wilson being in our division for the next decade
- Down 27-7 Wilson leads them all the way back, taking the lead with 25 seconds left in the 4th
- Wilson: 385 yards, 2 TD's, INT, 1 rushing TD

4. Niners vs Falcons

- Spotted the #1 seed Falcons 17 points on the road
- Kaepernick orchestrated the biggest comeback in the history of the NFC CG
- Kaep: 233 yards, 1TD, 127.7 rating

5. Redskins vs Cowboys

- Embarrassed the Cowboys on national television
- RG3: 304 yards, 4 TD's, INT
- Would've been higher if it were against a team that made the playoffs


In the words of the the immortal Jim Ross "WHAT A SLOBBERKNOCKER!" In what may be the most talented group of quarterbacks to come out in back-to-back years, Colin Kaepernick separates himself, however slightly, from the rest. His game averages are, for the most part, better than his young contemporaries while obtaining more team success. Kaepernick did have the most talented team around him but he also had less game experience than the other 3 quarterback's. He didn't start taking the starting reps until Alex Smith went down with an injury. If anything, the fact that Kaepernick came off the bench midseason, with Super Bowl expectations, and zero starting experience makes his accomplishments even more impressive. Our guy is just better than your guy.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.