You know, just when you start to get a little confident with your picks, it all comes crashing down. In Week 5, I put together a rare strong performance, finishing 11-4 against the spread, and 5-0 in my SuperContest picks. A week later, I came slumping back to worth, going 5-10 ATS and 2-3 with my SuperContest picks. It was not a pretty sight.
For those that missed the previous explanation, I'm taking part in the LVH SuperContest, with OddsShark covering my entry fee. There are over 1,400 entries, and my goal from day one has been to finish closer to first place than last place. You can check out full standings here. The 2-3 week has me at 16-14 overall me, and hanging right in the middle of the pack. Heading into the season, my goal was to finish closer to first than last. I'm in decent position right now, and hopefully I can finish above .500 on the season.
This week, I am kind of inclined to stay away from 49ers-Broncos. The 49ers are 6.5 point underdogs, and head into Denver with an assortment of injuries. And yet, I find myself wondering if the team's defense is built to contain Peyton Manning & Co., even with all the injuries. Losing Jimmie Ward stings a little, but they have shown themselves to have solid cornerback depth. Losing Patrick Willis is never a good thing, but they could mitigate with more dime packages. I see the 49ers going into this game with potentially low expectations from the public, but a real chance to spring the upset. Maybe they end up losing ugly, but this could be an interesting one.
Other than that, the one pick I'm definitely grabbing is Chargers at home -4.5. Division games can be a toss-up at times, but I'm going to keep taking the Chargers at home. That sort of strategy burned me finally last week with the Seahawks, but I can live with that!
Other than that, I like the idea of the Colts at home against the Bengals. The Colts are solid at home, and without A.J. Green, I just don't see the Bengals hanging around. I like Ravens -6.5 at home against the Falcons and Cowboys -6.5 at home. Beyond that, I'd like to find some underdogs to grab. I'm tempted by the Raiders at home against Arizona, but that line might be a little too low. The Vikings tempt me at Buffalo, but I also could see Buffalo bouncing back strong after that less than stellar performance against New England.
Any other thoughts on some upsets? Here are my picks for now.
PATRIOTS vs. Jets (+9.5) - Patriots
COLTS vs. Bengals (+3) - Colts
WASHINGTON vs. Titans (+5.5) - Titans
BEARS vs. Dolphins (+3) - Bears
JAGUARS vs. Browns (-5.5) - Browns
RAMS vs. Seahawks (-6.5) - Seahawks
PACKERS vs. Panthers (+7) - Packers
RAVENS vs. Falcons (+6.5) - Ravens
BILLS vs. Vikings (+5.5) - Vikings
LIONS vs. Saints (+2.5) - Lions
CHARGERS vs. Chiefs (+4.5) - Chargers
COWBOYS vs. Giants (+6.5) - Cowboys
RAIDERS vs. Cardinals (-3.5) - Raiders
BRONCOS vs. 49ers (+6.5) - 49ers
STEELERS vs. Texans (+3) - Steelers