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NFL picks against the spread, Week 5: 49ers sitting as 6-point favorites for SuperContest

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The San Francisco 49ers are 6-point favorites at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. We take a look at that game, my picks for the LVH SuperContest, and my picks for the remaining games.

MGM Sports Book

My 2014 picks continue to scuffle along, following another mediocre week. I went 6-7 in the 13 games, and 2-3 in my SuperContest picks. For those that missed the previous explanation, I'm taking part int he LVH SuperContest, with OddsShark covering my entry fee. There are over 1,400 entries, and my goal from day one has been to finish closer to first place than last place. You can check out full standings here. I went 3-2 in Week 2, but otherwise have gone 2-3 each week, and now sit at 9-11. It's not awful, but I'm still in the bottom half of the standings.

Last week, I went with Washington (-3.5) over the Giants, the Packers (-1) over the Bears, the Colts (-7.5) over the Titans, the 49ers (-5.5) over the Eagles, and the Patriots (-3) over the Chiefs. I hit on the Packers and Colts. I came up half a point short with the 49ers, but got blasted by Washington and the Patriots.

One downside to last week was only having 13 games from which to pick. I get to pick any 5 games I want, so that seems like a lot. But dropping three games adds a certain degree of difficulty. Thankfully, this week we have 15 games, with only the Raiders and Dolphins on bye.

I'm obviously tempted by the 49ers as six point favorites. I should really be staying away from them, but having the Chiefs coming cross country after a huge Monday Night Football game? I'd say bet on an emotional letdown, but then there's the Alex Smith factor. I doubt he has an emotional letdown, so does that make this a wild card? That +6 is tempting, but since Week 1, the 49ers offense has not done enough late in games to give me confidence in the cover.

I thought about taking the Packers. They are at home on Thursday Night Football. Teddy Bridgewater is a question mark for the game, and that makes me lean a little more heavily toward the Packers. Thoughts?

The Saints at home are always an interesting one. The Bucs are coming off a big win over the Steelers, but the Superdome is where New Orleans actually comes to play. Maybe the Bucs hang close early, but I really think the Saints blow this one open.

Beyond that, Colts at home remain an intriguing one. They're a team I will not touch on the road, but at home, they seem to have a thing. They're obviously different from the Saints, but somehow there is something similar about them in my mind.

The Chargers are off to a strong start to the season. Even without much of a running game, Philip Rivers had a great September. Do they continue it against Rex Ryan, Geno Smith and the New York Jets?

I hate the idea of going all chalk with this, because clearly underdogs are going to win. The Browns at +7 are an interesting one, but I'm just not seeing many dogs I clearly want to take.

Here are my picks for all 15 games this weekend.

PACKERS vs. Vikings (+9) - Packers
PANTHERS vs. Bears (+2.5) - Panthers
TITANS vs. Browns (+1.5) - Browns
EAGLES vs. Rams (+7) - Eagles
GIANTS vs. Falcons (+4) - Giants
SAINTS vs. Buccaneers (+10) - Saints
COWBOYS vs. Texans (+5.5) - Texans
LIONS vs. Bills (+7) - Lions
COLTS vs. Ravens (+3.5) - Colts
JAGUARS vs. Steelers (-6) - Steelers
BRONCOS vs. Cardinals (+7) - Broncos
49ERS vs. Chiefs (+6) - 49ers
CHARGERS vs. Jets (+6.5) - Chargers
PATRIOTS vs. Bengals (-1) - Patriots
WASHINGTON vs. Seahawks (-7) - Seahawks