Welcome back for another round of "fade Fooch to make some money". Through four weeks of the LVH SuperContest, I have made 20 picks and sit at 9-11. I opened the contest with a 2-3 week, before bouncing back to .500 with a 3-2 week. The last two weeks I have gone 2-3, dropping me a shade under .500. I don't think that's an embarrassing performance, but if I'm not going to do really well, I kind of would almost like to just do as awful as possible.
That being said, while I will not "throw" my picks, I am going to institute a new strategy. I've picked the 49ers three of the four weeks, and they have gone 1-2 ATS in those games. That's not a big enough sample size to do much with, but it has given me an idea. Until proven otherwise, if the 49ers opponent is an underdog, I'm going to pick the opponent to cover each week. If the opponent is a favorite, I will probably stay away from the game. But my thought is, maybe then the 49ers will start to cover some games. This is mildly irrational, but who cares!
Just a reminder, the folks at our partner site, OddsShark have staked me in a pick 'em contest in Las Vegas. I pick five games each week against the spread, taking on over 1,400 people. The top 30 win money. Going into this I simply wanted to finish closer to the top than the bottom. Right now I'm in the bottom half, but a few good weeks will get me right back in this thing. Thank god it's not my own money.
Chiefs over 49ERS (-6): Even making this pick, I think the 49ers pull this one out. However, the 49ers have struggled to get anything going on offense that shows any semblance of consistency. And add in a highly questionable Vernon Davis? The 49ers have not won a game with Davis sidelined. I do think they have enough weapons to beat this Chiefs team, but I think we see them squeak out another close one. I'd love to see a blowout, but I just am not holding my breath for now until the 49ers get healthier on offense.
Browns over TITANS (-1.5): Yep, another underdog. The Browns going on the road is not a great situation, but the Titans are just not an inspiring football team. Neither team has played particularly well against the spread, with the Browns 3-7 in their last ten, and the Titans 1-7-1 in their last nine. The Titans are 7-3 straight up against the Browns recently, but I think this Browns team will come out of the bye week looking good. Fade this pick accordingly.
BRONCOS over Cardinals (+7): I should probably have picked the Cardinals to really help the 49ers, but with Carson Palmer sidelined again, the Cardinals are not an inspiring pick heading into Denver. I'd certainly prefer another half point down on that, but I really think the Broncos open it up. The Cardinals defense has been playing well, but one big thing in Denver's favor is Wes Welker had the bye week to really get back into the swing of things. That will be a significant boon for the Broncos.
PATRIOTS over Bengals (-1): The Patriots were destroyed by the Chiefs on Monday Night Football, and that has people all but burying them at this point. The Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against New England, and 4-2 ATS in their last six games at Foxborough. And yet, I just think Brady has a bit of a throw-back performance this week. The Patriots are not a great team anymore, but they have some big performances left in them. It's a tough turnaround with Cincinnati having the bye week, and New England coming off a bit of a short week, but I'm riding a hunch with this one. As with the other picks, fade accordingly.
Seahawks over WASHINGTON (+7): Consider this Washington being awful, but me also hoping to fade the Seahawks a little bit. First off, Washington is no good. Sure they hung with Philly and blew out Jacksonville, but I don't think that tells us nearly enough. They got destroyed at home by the New York Giants on a short week. On the other side, we've got Seattle. The Seahawks are a different team on the road than at home, but when they play bad road teams, they cover. That being said, maaaaaaybe, they can cost me this pick. I don't ask for much!
Here is my full list of picks.
PACKERS vs. Vikings (+9) - Packers
PANTHERS vs. Bears (+2.5) - Panthers
TITANS vs. Browns (+1.5) - Browns
EAGLES vs. Rams (+7) - Eagles
GIANTS vs. Falcons (+4) - Giants
SAINTS vs. Buccaneers (+10) - Saints
COWBOYS vs. Texans (+5.5) - Texans
LIONS vs. Bills (+7) - Lions
COLTS vs. Ravens (+3.5) - Colts
JAGUARS vs. Steelers (-6) - Steelers
BRONCOS vs. Cardinals (+7) - Broncos
49ERS vs. Chiefs (+6) - Chiefs
CHARGERS vs. Jets (+6.5) - Chargers
PATRIOTS vs. Bengals (-1) - Patriots
WASHINGTON vs. Seahawks (-7) - Seahawks