NFL picks against the spread, Week 6: 49ers sitting as 3.5-point favorites for SuperContest

After four weeks of struggling, I finally had a decent week of NFL picks. For Week 5, I was 11-4 overall, and 5-0 in my SuperContest picks. For those that missed the previous explanation, I'm taking part in the LVH SuperContest, with OddsShark covering my entry fee. There are over 1,400 entries, and my goal from day one has been to finish closer to first place than last place. You can check out full standings here. The 5-0 week improves me to 14-11 overall. I am now closer to first than last, and the goal is to stick in that top half. I fully expect an 0-5 or 1-4 week soon!

Last week, I went with Browns (+1.5) over Titans, Broncos (-7) over Cardinals, Chiefs (+6) over 49ers, Patriots (+1) over Bengals, and Seahawks (-7) over Washington. For those wondering why I would pick against the 49ers, I explained my new strategy last Saturday. If the 49ers are more than a field goal favorite, I'm pretty much set on picking against them. There's this talk about winning close games, and what it says about coaching. Well, I'm going to pick against the 49ers when they are big favorites to prove what it says about karma. Or something along those lines. What do I know?

This week, I've got a few ideas, but not a lot is really jumping out as a sure thing. I'll probably take the Rams at +3.5, figuring the 49ers end up with a 3-point win. And then, when the 49ers blow them out, you all can thank me! But honestly, the 49ers face a Rams team they should be able to cover against. The Rams are struggling in the trenches, with their offensive line giving up a lot of pressure, and their defensive line is not finding its way to the quarterback. This is the kind of game this 49ers team is built to dominate. We'll see.

I'm likely going to take the Seahawks once again. They face a Cowboys team that is playing well, but I just don't see them putting up a strong enough effort up in Seattle. That being said, it will be fascinating to watch that ridiculous Cowboys run game go up against the Seahawks strong run defense. If the Seahawks can contain DeMarco Murray (a tall order these days), Tony Romo could be in for a long day.

Other than that, I'm considering the Falcons at home against the Bears, although that Falcons team has some serious question marks with injuries. I'm looking at Washington on the road against an Arizona team that apparently will be starting Logan Thomas. I'm not entirely sure I'm comfortable with Washington, so we'll see. I do like the Browns at home against the Steelers. Most years I'd consider the Steelers, but this Browns team strikes me as a little different.

I may change my picks, but these are my picks for now. What are your thoughts? Home teams listed first in all caps.

TEXANS vs. Colts (-3) - Texans
JETS vs. Broncos (-8.5) - Broncos
BROWNS vs. Steelers (+2) - Browns
TITANS vs. Jaguars (+5.5) - Titans
FALCONS vs. Bears (+3.5) - Falcons
DOLPHINS vs. Packers (-3.5) - Packers
VIKINGS vs. Lions (-1.5) - Vikings
BENGALS vs. Panthers (+7) - Bengals
BILLS vs. Patriots (-3) - Bills
BUCCANEERS vs. Ravens (-3) - Ravens
RAIDERS vs. Chargers (-7) - Chargers
SEAHAWKS vs. Cowboys (+8) - Seahawks
CARDINALS vs. Washington (+3) - Washington
EAGLES vs. NY Giants (+3) - Eagles
RAMS vs. 49ers (-3.5) - Rams