Welcome back for another week of Fooch's Super Contest picks. I've reached a point where I can't even suggest picking OR fading my picks. For the second time in three weeks, I put together a 2-3 performance. I picked the Cardinals and Seahawks with hopes of fading them a bit. The Seahawks lost, and the Cardinals won, so that's worth something.
This week, I had considered going with the San Francisco 49ers as 9.5-point favorites against Washington. I ended up deciding to just stay away from the 49ers for now. They have actually covered a decent amount this year, but that offense is so inconsistent, I honestly have no idea what to make of them week-to-week.
We had some discussion earlier today about whether or not the 49ers need a "big" win against a team like Washington. There is a saying that "good teams win, great teams cover." The 49ers could miss the cover every game the rest of the way and potentially still win the Super Bowl. And yet, thumping inferior teams is always welcome. Washington is 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games, while the 49ers are 4-2 ATS in their last six. One interesting stat is that the 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Those six games include a cover against the Chiefs, and failing to cover against the Rams, Eagles, Bears, Falcons and Seahawks. During that stretch, they are 4-2 straight up.
Just a reminder, the folks at our partner site, OddsShark have staked me in a pick 'em contest in Las Vegas. I pick five games each week against the spread, taking on over 1,400 people. The top 30 win money. Going into this I simply wanted to finish closer to the top than the bottom. I'm hanging around in the upper half of the middle of the pack, so we'll see if I can continue to build some positive momentum. Don't hold your breath!
Here are my picks for Week 12, with home teams in caps.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) over Detroit Lions: The Patriots are rolling, winning six straight and covering in five. They will not cover every game, but at this point, with a healthy Gronk running roughshod, how can I not take them week in and week out? I'll ride the hot streak.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-1.5) over Cincinnati Bengals: Ryan Mallett is officially 1-for-1, with the Texans winning in his first career start. Cincinnati is coming off a huge road over the New Orleans Saints, but I am skeptical that they can build on that this week. I see a close one, but I think Andy Dalton makes a big mistake that costs the Bengals.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-4.5) over St. Louis Rams: Are the Rams actually a decent team? They've beaten the 49ers, Broncos and Seahawks, and lost close ones to the Cowboys and Eagles. Of course, Minnesota also thumped them. The Chargers have failed to cover five straight games, even as they hang around the AFC West at 6-4. This might be a "Chargers are due" pick, and that rarely ends well!
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS: How about a little karmic stink for the Cowboys? They could roll the Giants, or stumble and lose a close one to Eli Manning & Co. I'll do what I can to help them pull off the win!
New York Jets (+4.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: This game was relocated to Detroit and moved from Sunday to Monday thanks to a crazy level of snow in Buffalo. The Bills could not practice on their normal schedule, and will be getting weekend practice in to catch up. I don't know if that will cost them, but I do know it introduced us to #BoobieEskimo! I probably should not be betting against #BoobieEskimo.
Here are my remaining picks:
RAIDERS vs. Chiefs (-7) - Raiders
FALCONS vs. Browns (+3) - Falcons
EAGLES vs. Titans (+11) - Titans
PATRIOTS vs. Lions (+7) - Patriots
VIKINGS vs. Packers (-9.5) - Vikings
COLTS vs. Jaguars (+14) - Colts
TEXANS vs. Bengals (+1.5) -
BILLS vs. Jets (+4.5) -
BEARS vs. Buccaneers (+5.5) - Bears
SEAHAWKS vs. Cardinals (+6.5) - Seahawks
CHARGERS vs. Rams (+4.5) - Chargers
BRONCOS vs. Dolphins (+7) - Broncos
49ERS vs. Washington (+9.5) - 49ers
GIANTS vs. Cowboys (-3.5) - Cowboys
SAINTS vs. Ravens (+3.5) - Saints