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The San Francisco 49ers are set to wrap up their 2014 season, and begin the the long slog to free agency, the draft, and then the 2015 season. It has not been pretty this year, but one bit of upside is that the 49ers will have fairly good positioning in the 2015 NFL Draft.
Following their Week 16 loss to the Chargers, the 49ers are currently sitting at the No. 14 pick, tied with Cleveland. The Browns are a spot ahead of the 49ers because of strength of schedule. For playoff and division standings, tiebreakers cover everything from head-to-head, to conference and divisional record, to strength of victory, among others. For the draft, the first tiebreaker is strength of schedule, and the second tiebreaker is coin flip. That's it.
The 49ers face the Cardinals on Sunday, and a win or loss could swing the 49ers a decent amount. They could improve to potentially as high as 12, or as low as 18. I've posted the current draft order with strength of schedule at the bottom, but first up, here is a rundown of the pertinent games on Sunday, along with our rooting interest.
Cleveland Browns (7-8) @ Baltimore Ravens: The Browns are heavy underdogs in this game as they'll be rolling out free agent addition Connor Shaw at quarterback, and reports have them substituting heavily in an evaluation game. Combine that with the Ravens needing a win to have a shot at a playoff spot, and I think we see Baltimore have their way with Cleveland. Nontheless...Rooting interest: Ravens
St. Louis Rams (6-9) @ Seattle Seahawks: If the Rams win and the 49ers lose, the 49ers would have a shot at moving up past them with the strength of schedule tiebreaker. The Rams SOS heading into Week 17 is 127-112 (0.5314), while the 49ers SOS is 128-111 (0.5356). The only two games different in the 49ers and Rams schedule is their NFC North and South opponents. The 49ers played New Orleans and Chicago, while St. Louis played Tampa Bay and Minnesota. In a fitting close to the season, those squads are facing each other with Tampa Bay hosting New Orleans, and Minnesota hosting Chicago. The 49ers would need the Bucs and Vikings to win both games to get the leap-frog in strength of schedule. Rooting interests: Seahawks, Bucs, Vikings
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (8-7): The Texans need a win and losses by the Chargers and Ravens to claim the final wild card spot. They will be rolling out Case Keenum at quarterback, but they managed a huge win with him last week, so we'll see if he can build on it. Rooting interest: Texans
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (8-7): The Jets season has been its own little disaster, with head coach Rex Ryan and GM John Idzik likely out the door. The team could spring one last "win for Rex", but I would be surprised given the lack of talent there. The Dolphins could crap the bed, but I think they get the win. Rooting interest: Dolphins
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (8-7): The Chiefs are in a tough situation, having to start Chase Daniel after Alex Smith suffered a lacerated spleen. Odds are not good for them, and yet I would not be at all shocked to see Daniel put on a better passing performance. This team is built around Jamaal Charles, but it is important to note that Smith has struggled the latter half of this season. I think the Chargers win this one, but on the road, who knows. Rooting interest: Chiefs
Buffalo Bills (8-7, Browns get the pick) @ New England Patriots: The Browns get this pick due to the Sammy Watkins deal, but it comes down to how the Bills perform. The Patriots have nothing to play for, having already secured homefield advantage through the AFC playoffs. It will be interesting to see just how much we see of Tom Brady and the other starters. That could swing this game. Rooting interest: Bills
Final predictions
While we have rooting interests, I also have some thoughts on who I think will win. I think the Browns and Rams both lose. I think we see the Texans and Dolphins both win, while the Chiefs and Bills lose. If that happens and the 49ers lose, San Francisco will pick No. 14, where they currently stand. If the 49ers win with those other wins and losses, the 49ers will pick No. 16.
Pick | Team | Record | Strength of Schedule | |
1 | TB | 2 - 13 | 114 - 122 - 3 | 0.4833 |
2 | TEN | 2 - 13 | 118 - 120 - 1 | 0.4958 |
3 | JAX | 3 - 12 | 122 - 116 - 1 | 0.5126 |
4 | NYJ | 3 - 12 | 132 - 107 | 0.5523 |
5 | OAK | 3 - 12 | 137 - 101 | 0.5756 |
6 | WAS | 4 - 11 | 118 - 122 | 0.4917 |
7 | CHI | 5 - 10 | 125 - 114 - 1 | 0.5229 |
8 | ATL | 6 - 9 | 113 - 123 - 3 | 0.4791 |
9 | MIN | 6 - 9 | 115 - 124 - 1 | 0.4812 |
10 | NO | 6 - 9 | 114 - 122 - 3 | 0.4833 |
11 | NYG | 6 - 9 | 123 - 117 | 0.5125 |
12 | STL | 6 - 9 | 127 - 112 | 0.5314 |
13 | CLE | 7 - 8 | 110 - 125 - 3 | 0.4685 |
14 | SF | 7 - 8 | 128 - 111 | 0.5356 |
15 | HOU | 8 - 7 | 106 - 132 - 1 | 0.4456 |
16 | MIA | 8 - 7 | 122 - 117 | 0.5105 |
17 | KC | 8 - 7 | 124 - 114 | 0.521 |
18 | CLE via BUF | 8 - 7 | 125 - 114 | 0.523 |
19 | BAL | 9 - 6 | 112 - 123 - 3 | 0.4769 |
20 | PHI | 9 - 6 | 117 - 122 - 1 | 0.4896 |
21 | SD | 9 - 6 | 122 - 116 | 0.5126 |
22 | GB | 11 - 4 | 115 - 124 - 1 | 0.4812 |
23 | PIT | 10 - 5 | 104 - 131 - 3 | 0.4433 |
24 | ARI | 11 - 4 | 126 - 113 | 0.5272 |
25 | CAR | 6 - 8 - 1 | 116 - 122 - 1 | 0.4874 |
26 | IND | 10 - 5 | 114 - 123 - 1 | 0.4811 |
27 | CIN | 9 - 4 - 1 | 118 - 120 - 1 | 0.4958 |
28 | DAL | 11 - 4 | 107 - 133 | 0.4458 |
29 | DET | 11 - 4 | 112 - 127 - 1 | 0.4688 |
30 | DEN | 11 - 3 | 125 - 113 - 1 | 0.5251 |
31 | SEA | 11 - 4 | 126 - 112 - 1 | 0.5293 |
32 | NE | 12 - 3 | 121 - 116 - 1 | 0.5105 |