NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: My SuperContest picks

Welcome back for another round of Fooch trying to keep his head above water in the LVH/Westgate SuperContest. For those unaware, the folks at our partner site, OddsShark have staked me in a pick 'em contest in Las Vegas. I pick five games each week against the spread, taking on over 1,400 people. The top 30 win money, and while I like to think I know a thing or two about football, I'm guessing I finish closer to the bottom of the standings than the top!

I did make a minor move up this past week. After going 2-3 in Week 1, I improved to 3-2 in Week 2. I took the Bills (+1) over the Dolphins, Patriots (-3) over the Vikings, Chargers (+6) over the Seahawks, Buccaneers (-5.5) over the Rams, and 49ers (-6.5) over the Bears. I hit on Bills, Patriots and Chargers.

I'm back this week, and for the first time I am not touching the 49ers. They were initially favored at -2.5, but the line crept up to 3 when it locked in for us. The SuperContest locks in the line on Wednesday, but we have until Friday to make our picks. I was tempted by the 49ers in Arizona, but I have a hunch they win something similar to last year's 23-20 victory, which would net me half a point in this contest.

Here are my picks for this week:

BILLS (-3) over Chargers
BENGALS (-6.5) over Titans
BROWNS (+1.5) over Ravens
JAGUARS (+6.5) over Colts
SEAHAWKS (-5) over Broncos

I'm going with all home teams, but two of five are home underdogs. I'm more comfortable with the Browns pick than the Jaguars pick, although both could easily kick me in the junk. Or watch me hit on those picks, and then get shutout on my favorites. Or I could just go 0-5. That's always fun!

I think the Bills are sufficiently hot that I'll ride them until they buck me. The Chargers are a solid team, but I just don't like them on the road in a fairly hostile Ralph Wilson Stadium. I don't like picking the Seahawks, but until they lose at home, I'm probably going to take them at home each week. Well, except for if they have a ridiculous point spread. For example, the Patriots would have been fun this week against the Raiders, but at -14? I do think they can easily blow out the Raiders, but two touchdown spreads are tough.

As for Jaguars-Colts? I don't like Indianapolis on the road, and this is more of a hunch than anything else. That is probably a big mistake! Here are the rest of my Week 3 picks. I made changes since then, including deciding to go Browns instead of Ravens:

FALCONS vs. Buccaneers (+6) - Falcons
BILLS vs. Chargers (+2.5) - Bills
RAMS vs. Cowboys (-1.5) - Cowboys
EAGLES vs. Washington (+6.5) - Eagles
GIANTS vs. Texans (-2) - Texans
SAINTS vs. Vikings (+10.5) - Saints
BENGALS vs. Titans (+6.5) - Bengals
BROWNS vs. Ravens (-1.5) - Browns
LIONS vs. Packers (+2.5) - Lions
JAGUARS vs. Colts (-6.5) - Jaguars
PATRIOTS vs. Raiders (+14) - Raiders
CARDINALS vs. 49ers (-3) - 49ers (likely push)
SEAHAWKS vs. Broncos (+5) - Seahawks
DOLPHINS vs. Chiefs (+4.5) - Dolphins
PANTHERS vs. Steelers (+3.5) - Panthers
JETS vs. Bears (+3) - Jets