NFL picks against the spread, Week 4: 49ers sitting as 5.5-point favorites

My fairly miserable season of picks improved a little in Week 3, but remains fairly mediocre. In Weeks 1 and 2, I was 6-10 each week. I improved to 7-9 in Week 3, so maybe this means I'm on the comeback trail? Doubtful, but you never can tell. At 19-29, I'm glad I don't have any of my own money involved in this.

My SuperContest picks have been slightly better, but remain middle of the road. After going 2-3 in Week 1, and 3-2 in Week 2, I slipped back to 2-3 in Week 3. Last week, I ended up taking the Bills (-3) over Chargers, Bengals (-6.5) over Titans, Browns (+1.5) over Ravens, Jaguars (+6.5) over Colts and Seahawks (-5) over Broncos. I hit on the Bengals and the Seahawks (thanks to overtime in the latter), and missed on the rest. With Bills-Chargers, I figured the Bills were hot, and the Chargers slip-slide at times early in the season. Maybe that is no longer the case. In Browns-Ravens, Cleveland yacked it up late at what a buddy of mine up there calls the "Factory of Sadness." And well, Jaguars covering against Colts was a hunch that ended poorly.

This week, we have the first byes of the season, with six teams getting the week off. Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, St. Louis, Arizona and Seattle are all off, which means I have three fewer games to pick from for the SuperContest. I have put in my full list of picks for now down below, but here are some teams I'm considering for the SuperContest:

1. The 49ers locked in at 5.5-point favorites. I think they can cover this, but I honestly have no clue what to expect of the 49ers at this point. They have a pair of ugly collapses under their belt. Do we see more of that, or do they figure out how clean things up?

2. Washington at home on a short week is very tempting. If I took the TNF game, I'd have to get all my picks in by noon PT on Thursday. Otherwise, I can wait until 6pm PT on Friday.

3. The Packers head to Chicago where they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games there. They seem to own the Bears at Soldier Field. The Packers have some serious question marks, but maybe Aaron Rodgers and company handle their business?

4. The Colts could face a Titans squad rolling out Clipboard Jesus, Charlie Whitehurst, instead of an injured Jake Locker. If I take Washington, I have to get my pick in before the final injury reports on Friday. Do I roll the dice with that extra point putting it up over a touchdown spread?

5. I'm intrigued by the Lions heading to the Meadowlands. The Lions are off to a solid start, coming off a home win over the Packers.

6. Do I climb back on the Chargers band wagon and ride the hot team? I assume this is when they would buck me off.

WASHINGTON vs. Giants (+3.5) - Washington
BEARS vs. Packers (-1.5) - Packers
TEXANS vs. Bills (+3) - Bills
COLTS vs. Titans (+7.5) - Colts
RAVENS vs. Panthers (+3.5) - Ravens
JETS vs. Lions (-1.5) - Lions
STEELERS vs. Buccaneers (+7.5) - Steelers
CHARGERS vs. Jaguars (+12.5) - Chargers
49ERS vs. Eagles (+5.5) - 49ers
VIKINGS vs. Falcons (-3) - Falcons
COWBOYS vs. Saints (-3) - Cowboys
CHIEFS vs. Patriots (-3.5) - Patriots