NFL picks against the spread, Week 4: My SuperContest picks

And we're back for another round week of the LVH/Westgate SuperContest, where I continue to at best, tread water. For those unaware, the folks at our partner site, OddsShark have staked me in a pick 'em contest in Las Vegas. I pick five games each week against the spread, taking on over 1,400 people. The top 30 win money, and while I like to think I know a thing or two about football, I'm guessing I finish closer to the bottom of the standings than the top!

I took a minor stumble in Week 3, finishing 2-3. I covered with the Cincinnati Bengals and Seattle Seahawks, but came up short with the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars. Just looking at those names makes me shiver a little bit. I still like Buffalo and Cleveland this year, but I'm not entirely sure what I was thinking with Jacksonville. They are a tempting double digit underdog this week, but I think I'll stay away.

I'm back this week and decided to take another chance on the 49ers. I took them in Week 1 and covered, but took them in Week 2 and did not cover. This week they are favored by 5.5 points. That is a pretty sizable margin for a team that has struggled in the second half the last two weeks. It would probably be wiser to invest some money in them as a first half team, and the Eagles in a second half team, but where's the fun in that?!

Here are my picks for Week 4 (home team in caps, not off to the best of starts!):

WASHINGTON over New York Giants (+3.5)
Green Bay Packers over CHICAGO BEARS (+1)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS over Tennessee Titans (+7.5)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS over Philadelphia Eagles (+5.5)
New England Patriots over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+3)

That Washington pick has me in the hole early. I was looking to ride the strength of home teams on TNF, but I forgot that Washington is not particularly good. I thought New York was not particularly good either, but they might be able to do just enough to hang around in the NFC East. Or they'll come back next week and get destroyed by the Falcons.

I like the Packers over the Bears in part because of history. The Packers are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games on the road against Chicago. And it seems like Aaron Rodgers is due for a big game. The only concern is the Packers defense against a quality Bears offense. Of course, the Bears are also coming off a short week having played on Monday Night Football, so we'll see.

Here is the full rundown of my picks for this week:

WASHINGTON vs. Giants (+3.5) - Washington
Dolphins vs. Raiders (London) (+4) - Raiders
BEARS vs. Packers (-1.5) - Packers
TEXANS vs. Bills (+3) - Bills
COLTS vs. Titans (+7.5) - Colts
RAVENS vs. Panthers (+3.5) - Ravens
JETS vs. Lions (-1.5) - Lions
STEELERS vs. Buccaneers (+7.5) - Steelers
CHARGERS vs. Jaguars (+12.5) - Chargers
49ERS vs. Eagles (+5.5) - 49ers
VIKINGS vs. Falcons (-3) - Falcons
COWBOYS vs. Saints (-3) - Cowboys
CHIEFS vs. Patriots (-3.5) - Patriots