The San Francisco 49ers snapped their four game losing streaking this past Sunday, and now look to turn it into a winning streak when they face the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. The win moved the 49ers from the No. 7 pick to the No. 12 pick. Some folks have no problem with this, others are not pleased with the the declining draft pick. It all comes down to what you think of this team.
Now that we are over halfway through October, NFL Draft order odds are picking up some steam. The folks at Football Outsiders put together a weekly look at odds that include playoff and draft pick possibilities. Prior to Sunday's win, FO gave the 49ers the second highest odds of the No. 1 pick, and the highest odds of a top three pick. They had the 49ers with a 19.4 percent chance of claiming the top pick, which was just behind Houston (20.3 percent), and just ahead of Detroit (18.0 percent). The 49ers top three odds were 48.2 percent, just ahead of Houston (47.4) and Detroit (41.9).
Following the win, FO's updated odds obviously have the 49ers slipping a little bit. They have slipped to fourth in the odds for the top pick, third in the odds for a top three pick:
I was most surprised by the fact that the Kansas City Chiefs have eighth best odds for the No. 1 pick, and a top three pick. The loss of Jamaal Charles leaves me thinking that team is pretty terrible. I am still inclined to take them as an underdog this weekend against Landry Jones and the Pittsburgh Steelers, but this is not a good team. At all. I see them ending up with a top five pick
I'm certainly not advocating tanking, but I do think tonight's game against the Seahawks will tell us a lot about the state of this team. A win over the Seahawks, and I contend this team has a pretty decent shot at a .500 or better record. A loss to the Seahawks, and this very well could end up a five- or six-win team.
Some would call that an overreaction to one game, but I factor it in with a comparison to what we've seen the last three weeks. We've seen good defense and good offense, but rarely if ever at the same time. A loss has me thinking this is that mid-2010 Mike Singletary team. Talent to win some games, but not nearly enough to do it on a consistent basis. I would certainly prefer to be wrong about that, but it is hard to be overly optimistic.