We're back for another round of NFL picks against the spread! For the second straight season, I am back for the LVH SuperContest. SB Nation's partners over at Odds Shark are sponsoring my entry again. The contest requires selecting 5 games each week and picking them against the spread. This year's contest is expected to have nearly 1,400 participants, including myself, Matt Ufford and Eric Sollenberger from SB Nation. Everybody picks their own five games and there will be a running leaderboard HERE. You can follow my standings under the name "Fooch".
Last year, I finished 39-45-1. This year, I'm off to a decent start. I put together three straight 4-1 weeks, slipped to 3-2, bounced back to 3-1-1, followed that with back-to-back 3-2 weeks, and then slipped to 2-2-1. I bounced back last week with a 4-1 performance. My only loss came on the Saints overtime loss to the Titans. I suppose I underestimated how bad the Saints defense could be. I am currently 30-13-2 through nine weeks. Again, the cushion remains for my inevitable fall! I went 6-7 overall ATS with my picks.
Here are my SuperContest picks for Week 10:
BUCCANEERS (-1.5) over Cowboys
TITANS (+5.5) over Panthers
RAMS (-7) over Bears (+7)
WASHINGTON (PK) over Saints
BENGALS (-10.6) over Texans
I decided to go back to all five home teams this week. I generally stick with favorites and home teams, but will mix in some exceptions. This week, the Tennessee Titans are my underdog of choice. It's always hard to figure out which underdog to grab, if any. The Titans will host the unbeaten Carolina Panthers, who are coming off a huge win over the Green Bay Packers. The Panthers won solidly, while the Titans went into New Orleans and sprung an overtime upset. I'd be worried about a Titans letdown, but hosting an unbeaten team helps with that. And while the Panthers are a very good team, I think they could be due for a slip.
Washington was technically listed in the underdog slot, but their Week 10 matchup with the New Orleans Saints is listed as a pick 'em. Some books have since moved the Saints to point favorites, but it is a close line. I decided to bet against the Saints defense and road ability more than anything. Of course, this probably means they figure things out and beat Washington, but somehow, I have my pick set on Kirk Cousins and company.
I was tempted by Seattle over Arizona and Oakland over Minnesota, but both games left me a little hesitant. The Seahawks are not as good as they have been in the recent past, and Bruce Arians is 16-1 ATS when his team is a touchdown or less underdog. It is kind of a random stat, but I figure I'll stay away from it. As for the Raiders, they will be missing their starting center, who has apparently been a big part of Derek Carr's protection. I do think the Raiders end up covering, but it's a tough one to call.
Here are all my picks for Week 10
JETS vs. Bills (+2.5): Jets - Loss
PACKERS vs. Lions (+11.5): Packers
BUCCANEERS vs. Cowboys (+1.5): Bucs
TITANS vs. Panthers (-5.5): Titans
RAMS vs. Bears (+7): Rams
WASHINGTON vs. Saints (PK): Washington
EAGLES vs. Dolphins (+6.5): Eagles
STEELERS vs. Browns (+4.5): Steelers
RAVENS vs. Jaguars (+5.5): Jaguars
RAIDERS vs. Vikings (+3): Raiders
BRONCOS vs. Chiefs (+6): Broncos
GIANTS vs. Patriots (-7): Patriots
SEAHAWKS vs. Cardinals (+3): Seahawks
BENGALS vs. Texans (+10.5): Bengals