We're back for another round of NFL picks against the spread! For the second straight season, I am back for the LVH SuperContest. SB Nation's partners over at Odds Shark are sponsoring my entry again. The contest requires selecting 5 games each week and picking them against the spread. This year's contest is expected to have nearly 1,400 participants, including myself, Matt Ufford and Eric Sollenberger from SB Nation. Everybody picks their own five games and there will be a running leaderboard HERE. You can follow my standings under the name "Fooch".
Last year, I finished 39-45-1. This year, I'm off to a decent start. I put together three straight 4-1 weeks, slipped to 3-2, bounced back to 3-1-1, followed that with back-to-back 3-2 weeks, but then slipped to 2-2-1 last week. My push came on the wild Saints-Giants game. I had the Saints and their defense let me down; although a push is certainly better than nothing. My two losses were a close miss in the Ravens win over the Chargers, and some bad calls costing me the Panthers over the Packers. I am currently 26-12-2 through eight weeks. Again, the cushion remains for my inevitable fall! I went 8-5-1 overall ATS with my picks.
Here are my SuperContest picks for Week 9:
BENGALS (-11.5) over Browns
VIKINGS (-1.5) over Rams
SAINTS (-7.5) over Titans
PATRIOTS (-13.5) over Washington
Eagles (-2.5) over COWBOYS
Woo hoo, I'm off to a 1-0 start! I submitted my picks on Thursday because I wanted to take the Bengals against the Browns. Normally I avoid Thursday picks, because it means having to get all five picks submitted by then. But with six teams on bye, the pickings were a little more slim. I really liked the Bengals in this game, particularly with Joe Haden absent. I figured Johnny Manziel getting the emergency start on a short week would help as well, but I'd say I covered this one in spite of Manziel. He had a very solid game, and the Browns probably would have covered if not for so many drops by Manziel's receivers. He has work to do to improve his game, but Manziel looked solid on Thursday.
I looked at the 49ers-Falcons game all week. The 49ers were installed as a touchdown underdog following the Vernon Davis trade, and the Colin Kaepernick benching. On the one hand, the Falcons defense has a poor pass rush, and Atlanta has played down to poorer opponents most of the season. On the other hand, that would have required wagering on Blaine Gabbert. I just could not find it in myself. I am picking the 49ers to cover, but I will not pick them this week in the SuperContest.
The Bengals were a sizable favorite, and I also went with the other double digit favorite. New England is a 13.5-point favorite against Washington. The line has climbed up over 14.5 since the Westgate posted their lines, but in this case, thankfully I get the slightly smaller line. It is still a lot of points, but the Patriots seem hell-bent on taking care of business all season long. Washington is coming off a bye, which certainly could help, but I'm sticking with the Patriots continuing their revenge tour.
The Eagles are the one road team I took. They are coming off a bye, and unlike Washington, I think it holds a little more value to them. Dallas will get a second consecutive week of Dez Bryant, but they also get another week of Matt Cassel. He could surprise us, but the Cowboys are struggling in a big way without Tony Romo. Additionally, the road team in this rivalry is 7-1 ATS in the last eight road games, so why not roll the dice on Chip Kelly & Co? Even if it means betting on Sam Bradford!
The Vikings-Rams was one where I felt like picking against what might be an overvalued Rams team. They are not a bad team, but they are coming off a big win against a very bad 49ers team. That defensive line can do some damage, but I think Adrian Peterson is enough of a threat to slow them down. I'll take my chances with the home Vikings.
As for the Saints? That defense scares me, but they can put up points with the best of them. The Titans should have Marcus Mariota back, but he is likely not quite 100 percent. This is not quite the Giants offense from last week, so I'll take my chances with the 7.5-point spread.
Here are all my picks for Week 9
BENGALS vs. Browns (+11.5): Bengals - Win
STEELERS vs. Raiders (+4): Steelers
JETS vs. Jaguars (+6.5): Jets
VIKINGS vs. Rams (+1.5): Vikings
BILLS vs. Dolphins (+3): Dolphins
SAINTS vs. Titans (+7.5): Saints
PATRIOTS vs. Washington (+13.5): Patriots
PANTHERS vs. Packers (-2.5): Packers
49ERS vs. Falcons (-7): 49ers
BUCCANEERS vs. Giants (-2.5): Bucs
COLTS vs. Broncos (-5): Broncos
COWBOYS vs. Eagles (-2.5): Eagles
CHARGERS vs. Bears (+4): Bears