The San Francisco 49ers are currently 4-9, heading into their Week 15 contest with the Cincinnati Bengals. They hold the No. 6 spot in the 2016 NFL Draft order, with three games remaining. The order will change, and strength of schedule will be adjusted as other teams win and lose. With Thursday Night Football kicking off later tonight, I thought I'd take a look at the remaining schedules for the teams in front of, tied, and one game behind the 49ers. Below is a list of each team's schedule, with the remaining opponent win percentage in parenthesis following the team's current record. Following that is what the draft order would look like with the predictions, with tiebreakers based on current strength of schedule (which obviously will change).
1. Tennessee Titans, 3-10 (.590)
Week 15: @ New England
Week 16: vs. Houston
Week 17: @ Indianapolis
The Titans are a 14-point underdog heading into Gillette Stadium, and I don't expect them to cover the spread, let alone win the game. However, the home game against Houston and road game against Indianapolis are both intriguing. Texans QB Brian Hoyer was ruled out of this weekend's game with a concussion, so we won't find out until next week if he will clear the concussion protocol in time for Tennessee. If the Texans are rolling out T.J. Yates, that is a winnable game for Tennessee. As for the Colts, they are hoping to having Andrew Luck back in Week 16, but even if he is back, their defense is a mess.
My guess is they win one of their remaining three games, and finish with a 4-12 record.
2. San Diego Chargers, 3-10 (.538)
Week 15: vs. Miami
Week 16: @ Oakland
Week 17: @ Denver
The Chargers are an absolute mess. They are a two-point home favorite against Miami this weekend, if only because Miami is a bit of a train wreck themselves. I think Miami wins this game, but I wouldn't touch that two-point line with a ten-foot poll. I suspect we see the Chargers finish the season with three straight losses and a 3-13 record.
3. Cleveland Browns, 3-10 (.615)
Week 15: @ Seattle
Week 16: @ Kansas City
Week 17: vs. Pittsburgh
The Browns are riding high after beating the San Francisco 49ers, which says about what you need to know about their season. I see no reason they win any of their remaining three games. I could see them giving the Chiefs and Steelers a fight, but I think we see them finish with a 3-13 record.
4. Baltimore Ravens, 4-9 (.667)
Week 15: vs. Kansas City
Week 16: vs. Pittsburgh
Week 17: @ Cincinnati
The Ravens are a pretty bad team, rolling out Jimmy Clausen last week, and I suppose hoping Matt Schaub returns this week. Even getting the Chiefs and Steelers at home, I don't see them winning either game. That Bengals road game is interesting given Andy Dalton's injury status. We'll know a bit more about what to make of A.J. McCarron after this week. I'll go out on a limb and say the Ravens finish with a 5-11 record.
5. Detroit Lions, 4-9 (.359)
Week 15: @ New Orleans
Week 16: vs. San Francisco
Week 17: @ Chicago
The Lions have the easiest win percentage for their remaining opponents, but these are not exactly gimmes. I could see them beating the Saints, but going on the road to New Orleans is not exactly an easy one. The Saints are coming off a big road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so it will be interesting to see if they have a letdown. The 49ers beat Chicago on the road, but otherwise have been mostly bad away from Levi's Stadium. The Bears are a tough team to read. They win at Green Bay, but then struggle against the 49ers and Washington. I think we end up seeing the Lions beat San Francisco, but lose the other two, and finish with a 5-11 record.
6. San Francisco 49ers, 4-9 (.487)
Week 15: vs. Cincinnati
Week 16: @ Detroit
Week 17: vs. St. Louis
The 49ers have been better at home than on the road, but it's not like they have been lights out at home. I don't know what to make of the Bengals with A.J. McCarron at quarterback, but I could see a close loss or slim upset win this weekend. I don't think they win at Detroit, but I do think they get the win at home against St. Louis. Logically, a 5-11 record makes sense, but just for the heck of it, I'm going to say the 49ers annoy a lot of us, grab two wins, and finish with a 6-10 record.
7. Dallas Cowboys, 4-9 (.513)
Week 15: vs. NY Jets
Week 16: @ Buffalo
Week 17: vs. Washington
The Cowboys managed a win over Washington on Monday Night Football two weeks ago, marking their first win without Tony Romo at quarterback. They are still an awful team though, so look for more losses. I expect them to lose to the Jets and Bills, but I would not be at all surprised to see them stun Washington at home in Week 17 to cost Washington the NFC East title. That's just how Washington, D.C. sports works. I think we see the Cowboys finish with a 5-11 record.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars, 5-8 (.436)
Week 15: vs. Atlanta
Week 16: @ New Orleans
Week 17: @ Houston
The Jaguars are showing signs of growth, particularly on offense, with Blake Bortles looking pretty legit. That being said, there is still inconsistency, and they are a tough team to figure out. I think they beat the Falcons this weekend, but road games to close out the year are not going to be easy. Splitting them would not surprise me, but I have a hunch they lose both. I just can't pull the trigger on another win, and so they finish with a 6-10 record.
9. New Orleans Saints, 5-8 (.385)
Week 15: vs. Detroit
Week 16: vs. Jacksonville
Week 17: @ Atlanta
The Saints are a mess this season, but the offense has shown some life lately, and the defense is slightly improved since the firing of Rob Ryan. They still have problems, but I think they have two wins left in them over Detroit and Jacksonville, thus finishing with a 7-9 record.
10. Chicago Bears, 5-8 (.462)
Week 15: @ Minnesota
Week 16: @ Tampa Bay
Week 17: vs. Detroit
The Bears are a weird team. They win at Green Bay, at Kansas City, and vs. Oakland, but then lose home games in consecutive weeks to the 49ers and Washington. All three remaining games are winnable, but I think Detroit is the only game they win, finishing with a 6-10 record.
11. St. Louis Rams, 5-8 (.462)
Week 15: vs. Tampa Bay
Week 16: @ Seattle
Week 17: @ San Francisco
The Rams will roll out Case Keenum and Todd Gurley on offense, and hope that's enough to get some wins. I picked the Bucs to beat them tonight, although I am not overly confident in that. If the Rams lose tonight, I see them losing out the rest of the way, finishing with a 5-11 record.
12. Miami Dolphins, 5-8 (.513)
Week 15: @ San Diego
Week 16: vs. Indianapolis
Week 17: vs. New England
The Dolphins have been a team pundits suggest are ready to take that big next step to relevancy. Instead, they continue to revert to bad football. I really don't feel comfortable wagering on them, but realistically they could win two of their remaining three games. They face an awful Chargers team, and then host a Colts team that is a mess. My guess though is they beat the Chargers, and lose their final two games, finishing with a 6-10 record.
Final draft order
With all that in mind, here is a look at the draft order based on these predictions. There are nine more teams that are 6-7, and I imagine at least one of them could very well lose out the rest of the way. I'm going to ignore them at this point, because that's just too many teams for me to track. For now, this set of predictions would drop the 49ers from the No. 6 position to the No. 11 position. If any of the 6-7 teams lost out, they would climb ahead of the 49ers based on current strength of schedule.
1. San Diego Chargers, 3-13
2. Cleveland Browns, 3-13
3. Tennessee Titans, 4-12
4. Baltimore Ravens, 5-11
5. St. Louis Rams, 5-11
6. Detroit Lions, 5-11
7. Dallas Cowboys, 5-11
8. Jacksonville Jaguars, 6-10
9. Chicago Bears, 6-10
10. Miami Dolphins, 6-10
11. San Francisco 49ers, 6-10
12. New Orleans Saints, 7-9