FanPost

3 years of passing metrics -- where do Colin Kaepernick and the quarterbacks rank?

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

There have been quite a few stories on where the various quarterbacks rank in the NFL, based on pundit opinions, coaches' opinions, etc. However, what we haven't really seen is a data-driven look at the NFL's signal-callers. I'm a big believer in the expected points model, so I decided to take a look at QB performance based on various ESPN Expected Points Added (EPA) sub-components -- passing EPA, sacks EPA, total EPA, etc. I also had to do a little bit of work to combine pre and post season data, which ESPN doesn't do for the public (boo!).

The first one I'll throw out there is raw QB production (includes running and penalties) per game since 2012, including playoffs. For Kap, I used 7.5 games for the 2012 regular season:

PLAYER totEPA/g
Peyton Manning 5.75
Aaron Rodgers 5.19
Tom Brady 4.90
Drew Brees 4.71
Matt Ryan 4.66
Tony Romo 4.17
Colin Kaepernick 4.03
Ben Roethlisberger 3.69
Andrew Luck 3.66
Russell Wilson 3.52
Philip Rivers 3.43
Matthew Stafford 3.25
Joe Flacco 3.20
Nick Foles 3.17
Eli Manning 3.09

This list generally matches your perceptions of the game's QBs...almost. Kaepernick is 7th, which remarkably high given that the 49ers have been a run-first team since 2011 -- this is aggregate production, and the opportunities simply aren't there as much as they are for other QBs in pass-heavy offenses. In addition, the 49ers have a very good/great defense, which reduces his production even more.

So what about on a per-play basis?

PLAYER totEPA/ActPlay
Peyton Manning 0.127
Aaron Rodgers 0.123
Tom Brady 0.107
Tony Romo 0.102
Matt Ryan 0.101
Colin Kaepernick 0.100
Drew Brees 0.098
Russell Wilson 0.092
Ben Roethlisberger 0.086
Philip Rivers 0.082
Andrew Luck 0.081
Nick Foles 0.079
Eli Manning 0.075
Joe Flacco 0.074
Robert Griffin 0.069
Matthew Stafford 0.069

On a per play basis, Rodgers and Manning are significantly better than every other quarterback in the NFL. But after that, we've got Brady as a pretty clear 3rd, then a muddle of 5 to 6 quarterbacks in tier 2 -- including Kaepernick.

Now, what about just passing -- after all, pundits claim he's a run-first quarterback, right?

PLAYER PassEPA/g
Peyton Manning 6.10
Drew Brees 5.62
Aaron Rodgers 5.53
Matt Ryan 5.34
Tom Brady 5.25
Tony Romo 5.19
Ben Roethlisberger 4.93
Philip Rivers 4.51
Matthew Stafford 3.93
Colin Kaepernick 3.93
Eli Manning 3.76
Russell Wilson 3.75
Ryan Tannehill 3.72
Nick Foles 3.68
Joe Flacco 3.65
Teddy Bridgewater 3.54

We see some other young QBs here that don't get credit from the media either, like Tannehill. Kaepernick is t-9th with Stafford. Pretty incredible that Kaepernick produces as much with this arm -- in aggregate as Matt Stafford does, as much as he throws. Here are the per-attempt figures:

PLAYER Pass EPA/ATT
Aaron Rodgers 0.166
Peyton Manning 0.157
Tony Romo 0.149
Russell Wilson 0.144
Colin Kaepernick 0.140
Drew Brees 0.137
Matt Ryan 0.135
Tom Brady 0.135
Ben Roethlisberger 0.135
Philip Rivers 0.134
Nick Foles 0.115
Teddy Bridgewater 0.114
Ryan Tannehill 0.108
Eli Manning 0.107
Joe Flacco 0.104
Robert Griffin 0.100

Kap is 5th in passing efficiency, a shade behind Wilson (surprisingly) - we see guys like Stafford fall off the list here and down to 19th when measured this way.

Now, how about sacks? Kap gets sacked a lot right? Well...yes. So let's take a look at that metric.

PLAYER
Peyton Manning 5.38
Drew Brees 4.40
Tom Brady 4.21
Matt Ryan 4.05
Aaron Rodgers 4.02
Tony Romo 3.87
Ben Roethlisberger 3.49
Philip Rivers 3.20
Matthew Stafford 2.83
Eli Manning 2.72
Nick Foles 2.48
Matt Schaub 2.41
Colin Kaepernick 2.39
Joe Flacco 2.31
Russell Wilson 2.22
Josh Freeman 2.14
Andrew Luck 2.06

In the aggregate, Kap falls all the way down to 12th or 13th, Wilson falls to 15th, Luck drops to 17th. Lots of quarterbacks are having sack problems. On a per ATT+SACK basis:

PLAYER pass+sack EPA/att+sacks
Peyton Manning 0.1346
Aaron Rodgers 0.1127
Tony Romo 0.1046
Tom Brady 0.1037
Drew Brees 0.1025
Matt Ryan 0.0975
Ben Roethlisberger 0.0894
Philip Rivers 0.0886
Colin Kaepernick 0.0781
Russell Wilson 0.0778
Eli Manning 0.0736
Nick Foles 0.0729
Matthew Stafford 0.0658
Matt Schaub 0.0648
Joe Flacco 0.0622
Josh Freeman 0.0586
Robert Griffin 0.0571
Jay Cutler 0.0539
Ryan Tannehill 0.0529
Andrew Luck 0.0510

Luck falls to 20th. Cam Newton is a putrid 27th (!). Kap and Wilson have nearly identical figures in this metric and are t-10th. And once again Manning and Rodgers are heads and shoulders above the rest of the NFL.

So what does all this mean? Well, unless you think Kaepernick dramatically regressed in 2014, it means that we have a Top 5 to Top 12 quarterback who is still figuring things out. I think the 'regression' argument is bunk. While his INT% went up, his completion percentage also went up. And while his yards per attempt went down, the very poor play of the offensive line prevented him from having enough time to get down the field. Finally, weak receiver play -- evident by the investment in Torrey Smith and departure of Crabtree -- prevented a lot of great opportunities -- 6th in team drop rate, lack of separation, Vernon Davis injuries, etc. There are great reasons to remain optimistic! Over a 45 game sample, Kaepernick looks like a wonderful quarterback.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.