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49ers-Packers odds: Big home underdogs have some success in recent history

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This is not an ideal matchup for the 49ers, but home underdogs of at least a touchdown have done well in recent years. We break it down.

The San Francisco 49ers welcome the Green Bay Packers to town this Sunday, and oddsmakers see the Packers as heavy favorites. The road Packers are currently favored by anywhere from eight to nine points. Considering a home team gets approximately three points for being at home, that tells us a little something. The moneyline is also fairly high, with the 49ers ranging between +300 and +360 (bet $100 to win those amounts).

The line originally opened at Packers -9.5, but came down a little bit early on. People are wondering who would put money on the 49ers, given how badly they performed the last two weeks. Gambling history is one thing working in their favor, to a certain extent. It is not a glorious history, but it is something. According to the OddsShark NFL database, dating back to 2007, there have been 162 games in which a home team was an underdog of at least seven points. In those games, the underdog is 90-68-4 against the spread (55.55 percent win rate). They are 39-123-0 straight up (24.07 percent win rate).

Someone else passed along some stats they tracked dating back to 1999.

It is hard to take gambling stats seriously when looking at this current version of the 49ers. They are playing some awful football right now, and it does not bode well for even a cover at home against the Packers. History is kinda, sorta on their side, but even still, I am staying away from this game from an ATS picks perspective. The 49ers benefit from facing the Packers on a shorter week, but it's gonna be a tough one.