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Team-by-team pre-Free Agency draft needs: an analysis

By on Jan 27, 2016, 1:50pm PST 244

Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

The problem with mock drafts, as i see it, is that there isn't really any rigor applied to them; just some guy picking who he thinks a team needs. But what are those needs? And how does that impact the process?

Well, I decided to look into it myself. What I did here is take PFF player grades and create snap-weighted unit grades for each team: sum of grade x snaps. I then normalized the scores into percentiles for each team:

TEAM QB RB WR OT TE OG C CB S LB IDL Edge
ARZ 0.96 0.35 0.97 0.50 0.53 0.52 0.24 0.95 0.30 0.37 0.69 0.29
ATL 0.74 0.51 0.32 0.86 0.32 0.76 0.47 0.42 0.22 0.26 0.34 0.22
BAL 0.65 0.13 0.70 0.74 0.52 0.37 0.52 0.03 0.92 0.33 0.58 0.31
BUF 0.53 0.54 0.26 0.50 0.27 0.50 0.76 0.64 0.31 0.34 0.36 0.28
CAR 0.89 0.31 0.42 0.66 0.93 0.91 0.84 0.69 0.69 0.92 0.29 0.79
CHI 0.36 0.77 0.43 0.28 0.70 0.11 0.98 0.32 0.28 0.11 0.26 0.32
CIN 0.70 0.82 0.62 0.57 0.82 0.83 0.21 0.60 0.74 0.75 0.62 0.17
CLE 0.13 0.58 0.19 0.92 0.43 0.42 0.70 0.49 0.02 0.51 0.62 0.11
DAL 0.01 0.04 0.19 0.80 0.54 0.59 0.82 0.01 0.66 0.78 0.07 0.37
DEN 0.41 0.49 0.79 0.13 0.92 0.73 0.74 0.85 0.84 0.76 0.97 0.84
DET 0.33 0.37 0.71 0.21 0.07 0.20 0.61 0.53 0.36 0.82 0.09 0.49
GB 0.91 0.47 0.95 0.89 0.26 0.97 0.57 0.90 0.97 0.19 0.32 0.92
HST 0.32 0.60 0.91 0.95 0.20 0.33 0.74 0.65 0.57 0.16 0.81 0.55
IND 0.13 0.22 0.62 0.09 0.58 0.99 0.09 0.13 0.39 0.51 0.73 0.52
JAX 0.30 0.74 0.61 0.18 0.55 0.21 0.60 0.62 0.08 0.88 0.20 0.46
KC 0.55 0.77 0.40 0.12 0.67 0.55 0.89 0.98 0.76 0.56 0.91 0.78
MIA 0.35 0.47 0.59 0.26 0.20 0.03 0.57 0.47 0.61 0.76 0.33 1.00
MIN 0.52 0.59 0.13 0.11 0.70 0.53 0.83 0.81 0.36 0.84 0.34 0.83
NE 0.95 0.85 0.28 0.29 0.98 0.58 0.72 0.80 0.98 0.89 0.27 0.83
NO 0.88 0.85 0.58 0.95 0.79 0.34 0.74 0.28 0.31 0.33 0.05 0.27
NYG 0.33 0.39 0.66 0.57 0.15 0.14 0.78 0.68 0.19 0.47 0.18 0.23
NYJ 0.18 0.86 0.95 0.08 0.00 0.54 0.62 0.31 0.30 0.27 0.89 0.04
OAK 0.59 0.05 0.28 0.95 0.35 0.30 0.50 0.30 0.22 0.18 0.63 0.96
PHI 0.75 0.35 0.09 0.62 0.77 0.46 0.81 0.18 0.99 0.21 0.97 0.44
PIT 0.87 0.99 0.93 0.62 0.65 0.91 0.16 0.71 0.80 0.22 0.87 0.62
SD 0.70 0.55 0.35 0.47 0.67 0.14 0.06 0.30 0.07 0.04 0.10 0.37
SEA 0.89 0.80 0.86 0.31 0.68 0.14 0.39 0.27 0.61 1.00 0.05 0.94
SF 0.07 0.13 0.09 0.16 0.17 0.78 0.01 0.80 0.32 0.29 0.84 0.19
STL 0.06 0.07 0.03 0.11 0.11 0.21 0.22 0.84 0.48 0.74 0.80 0.18
TB 0.41 0.97 0.40 0.16 0.26 0.73 0.21 0.06 0.28 0.53 0.24 0.08
TEN 0.10 0.08 0.02 0.72 0.95 0.05 0.17 0.10 0.46 0.40 0.81 0.31
WAS 0.58 0.17 0.62 0.92 0.41 0.90 0.01 0.44 0.31 0.07 0.70 0.65

Couple caveats here: first, these are normalized percentiles, so a 0.99975 is in fact a whole standard deviation better than a 0.955 - this works fine for our purposes. Second, major injuries aren't factored in -- e.g. Kelvin Benjamin coming back, Jordy Nelson coming back, Tony Romo, etc. There aren't that many of these so its not a major factor...but the need to be taken into consideration.

Mock Draft

So, let's do a mock draft based on this. What I'd like to do is a combination of best player available and needs-based drafting strategies. First, in order to wash out some of the extreme scores, I'll just use the square root of each of these - that way, a 0.01 is just a 0.1. Then, I'll just divide draft grades by this score - I'm using NFL.com for this exercise. Let's start with TEN.

Player POS GRADE TEN
Laremy Tunsil OT 7.7 10.7
Myles Jack ILB 7.5 18.8
DeForest Buckner DE 7.3 23.4
Ezekiel Elliott RB 7.2 90.1
Jaylon Smith ILB 7.1 17.8
Jalen Ramsey CB 6.8 69.0
Joey Bosa DE 6.7 21.4
Jared Goff QB 6.7 70.3
Andrew Billings NT 6.7 8.3
Vernon Hargreaves CB 6.7 68.0
Ronnie Stanley OT 6.7 9.3
A'Shawn Robinson DT 6.5 8.0
Leonard Floyd OLB 6.5 20.8
Reggie Ragland ILB 6.5 16.3
Hunter Henry TE 6.5 6.8
Paxton Lynch QB 6.4 67.2
Cody Whitehair OG 6.4 141.6
Jarran Reed DT 6.4 7.9
Jack Conklin OT 6.4 8.9
Kevin Dodd DE 6.3 20.2
Robert Nkemdiche DT 6.3 7.8
Derrick Henry RB 6.3 78.9
Laquon Treadwell WR 6.2 256.5
Kyler Fackrell OLB 6.2 19.8
Mackensie Alexander CB 6.2 62.9

As is shown, nothing makes a ton of sense for TEN at #1 - so they probably take a discount to trade down. Taylor Lewan receives fairly excellent grades from PFF, and was drafted high - so all these people picking Tunsil there in drafts are probably way off. They have a franchise left tackle. CB won't go #1, nor will a RB. Maybe Treadwell is #1 overall pick materiel after the combine. They're invested heavily in edge positions lately -- maybe Buckner as a tackle. Lets go with that. The rest of the first 37 picks is as follows:

Pick Team PLAYER Grade Pick Fit
1 TEN DeForest Buckner DE Oregon 7.3 13.1
2 CLE Jared Goff QB California 6.7 18.9
3 SD Myles Jack ILB UCLA 7.5 35.9
4 DAL Jalen Ramsey CB Florida St. 6.8 59.2
5 JAX Laremy Tunsil OT Mississippi 7.7 18.2
6 BAL Vernon Hargreaves CB Florida 6.7 38.9
7 SF Laquon Treadwell WR Mississippi 6.2 20.8
8 MIA Ezekiel Elliott RB Ohio St. 7.2 10.5
9 TB Joey Bosa DE Ohio St. 6.7 24.0
10 NYG Andrew Billings NT Baylor 6.7 15.8
11 CHI Jaylon Smith ILB Notre Dame 7.1 21.7
12 NO A'Shawn Robinson DT Alabama 6.5 28.1
13 PHI Reggie Ragland ILB Alabama 6.5 14.2
14 OAK Derrick Henry RB Alabama 6.3 29.0
15 STL Ronnie Stanley OT Notre Dame 6.7 20.5
16 DET Jarran Reed DT Alabama 6.4 21.9
17 ATL Leonard Floyd OLB Georgia 6.5 13.8
18 IND Jack Conklin OT Michigan St. 6.4 21.4
19 BUF Kevin Dodd DE Clemson 6.3 11.8
20 NYJ Hunter Henry TE Arkansas 6.5 131.9
21 WAS Scooby Wright III ILB Arizona 6.1 23.1
22 HST Paxton Lynch QB Memphis 6.4 11.2
23 MIN Robert Nkemdiche DT Mississippi 6.3 10.8
24 CIN Shaq Lawson DE Clemson 6.2 14.8
25 PIT Kyler Fackrell OLB Utah St. 6.2 7.9
26 SEA Cody Whitehair OG Kansas St. 6.4 17.0
27 GB Vernon Butler DT Louisiana Tech 6.1 10.7
28 KC Le'Raven Clark OT Texas Tech 6.0 17.4
29 ARZ Emmanuel Ogbah DE Oklahoma St. 6.1 11.4
30 DEN Carson Wentz QB North Dakota St. 6.1 9.5
31 CAR Mackensie Alexander CB Clemson 6.2 7.5
32 CLE Corey Coleman WR Baylor 6.1 14.0
33 TEN Josh Doctson WR TCU 5.8 37.3
34 DAL Connor Cook QB Michigan St. 5.9 60.6
35 SD Jonathan Bullard DT Florida 6.0 19.0
36 BAL Jordan Jenkins OLB Georgia 5.9 10.6
37 SF Ryan Kelly C Alabama 5.8 48.5

I had teams pass on RB Elliott because RB just doesn't make sense yet -- although after the combine that could change. CLE had a near-tie between Bosa and Goff. For SF, Elliott came up as the top score, but since Hyde is coming back, that will change -- but it wouldn't be out of the question to take him! near tie between Lynch and Treadwell. I don't know if Lynch would be a fit - and I don't think Chip is going to commit to a top QB pick this year - he wants to give Kap a chance.

Note: The lower the pick fit, the more likely it is that team is looking to trade down. These scores will change quite a bit after free agency.

Appreciate thoughts and feedback

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Niners Nation's writers or editors.

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