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NFL picks against the spread, Week 4: Can the 49ers get the outright W?

The San Francisco 49ers are 2.5-point underdogs at home against the Dallas Cowboys. Can they spring the small point spread upset? Time for my LVH SuperContest picks, as well as my picks for the remaining games.

Welcome back for Week 4 of the 2016 NFL season. The San Francisco 49ers are at home this week, sitting as a 2.5-point underdog against the Dallas Cowboys. That is the SuperContest line I am getting, but you can find them ranging between one point and three points depending on the sportsbook.

I think the 49ers end up covering this game, and I actually think probably winning it outright. The Cowboys are coming off two straight wins, while the 49ers have been thumped in back-to-back games. However, recency bias could create a market opportunity for 49ers fans! The Cowboys beat Washington and Chicago, while the 49ers lost at Carolina and at Seattle. Dallas could very well win this game, but they have benefited from playing an awful Bears team, and a Washington team that’s inconsistent at best right now. I think we see an improved effort from the 49ers, and if Carlos Hyde can do just enough, this is a winnable game.

For the third straight season, I am back for the LVH SuperContest. SB Nation's partners over at Odds Shark are sponsoring my entry again. The contest requires selecting 5 games each week and picking them against the spread. This year's contest is expected to have over 1,800 participants, which is a new record for the SuperContest. SB Nation is represented by myself and Matt Ufford, and there are folks from all over the blogosphere involved. Everybody picks their own five games and there will be a running leaderboard HERE. You can follow my standings under the name "Fooch.”

I had a slight improvement in Week 3 in the SuperContest, but things are still going pretty bad. My first three weeks featured 1-4, 1-4, and 2-3 (Week 1, Week 2, Week 3). I’m near the bottom at 4-11, while first place is 13-2. I was 8 picks back from first last week, and now am 9 picks back. This is what one might call, “trending in the wrong direction.”

Here are my SuperContest picks for Week 4. Fade at your leisure:

WASHINGTON (-7.5) over Browns
TEXANS (-5) over Titans
RAVENS (-3.5) over Raiders
BUCCANEERS (+3) over Broncos
49ERS (+2.5) over Cowboys

Sticking with the home teams this week, including two underdogs. I’m planning on taking Washington as my survivor pick as well. I realize the Browns have almost won each of their last two games, and Washington is an inconsistent team. But I think Washington will handle their business this week. And if not? Well, as a DC resident I’ll get to enjoy the crap-fest on local TV. Good times.

The Ravens over the Raiders is another one where I think it just makes a lot of sense. Oakland went east to get a win over Tennessee last week, but two straight east coast trips? Baltimore isn’t great, but they’re off to a solid start, and I think they win this one by a touchdown or so.

Here are all my picks for Week 4:

BENGALS vs. Dolphins (+7.5): Dolphins - Lost
JAGUARS vs. Colts, London (-2.5): Colts
WASHINGTON vs. Browns (+7.5): Washington
PATRIOTS vs. Bills (+5.5): Patriots
JETS vs. Seahawks (-2.5): Jets
FALCONS vs. Panthers (-3): Panthers
BEARS vs. Lions (-3): Bears
TEXANS vs. Titans (+5): Texans
RAVENS vs. Raiders (+3.5): Ravens
BUCCANEERS vs. Broncos (-3): Bucs
49ERS vs. Cowboys (-2.5): 49ers
CHARGERS vs. Saints (+4): Chargers
CARDINALS vs. Rams (+8): Cardinals
STEELERS vs. Chiefs (+5.5): Steelers
VIKINGS vs. Giants (+4.5): Vikings