The San Francisco 49ers enter Sunday’s Week 11 matchup with the New England Patriots as an 11-point home underdog. The line opened at two touchdowns, but has been brought down to 11 or 12 points, depending on your sportsbook of choice.
The 1-8 49ers are coming off a 23-20 road loss to the Arizona Cardinals, while the 7-2 Patriots are coming off a 31-24 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks. According to our friends at Odds Shark, 67 percent of wagers this week have been on the Patriots. That is the percentage of total bets made, not the percentage of total dollars wagered.
In spite of the large number of bets on the Patriots, the line creeped down to 11 at a few sportsbooks. The reason for that is the sharp bets are on the 49ers. A sharp is someone viewed as having a little more knowledge than your regular bettor. When a home team is getting double digit points, the pros are either going to bet the underdog, or stay away from the game entirely.
Over at ESPN’s “Chalk” section, they look at each game heading into Sunday, and provide a look at public perception and wiseguy perception. In the wiseguy section, they said, “early sharps grabbed the 49ers +14, as there's only one way they're likely to bet this, which is taking the double-digit home underdog.” Here is what ESPN’s experts had to say about the game. They seem fairly representative of the sharp community.
Dave Tuley's take: I've been burned several times by the 49ers this season, so of course I passed on them last week when they actually covered as 14-point home 'dogs in their 23-20 loss to the Cardinals. Now, they were down 14-0 early and they're certainly capable of getting blown out here, but Colin Kaepernick has the offense playing better and the return of Carlos Hyde helped the 49ers move the ball against the Cardinals. So there's hope they can stay relatively close while the Patriots are mostly concerned with just getting out of there with a victory.
The pick: 49ers +13*
Rufus Peabody: Despite losing last week, New England retains the top spot in the Massey-Peabody ratings (easily). San Francisco is coming off back-to-back above-average offensive games, and its numbers last week at Arizona don't look great (4.6 yards per play, 42 percent play success rate), although the 49ers were on the road against a top defense. This line opened at some places at a full two touchdowns, but has dropped down to 13. Still, we think that's too high -- the line should only be 10.
Pick: San Francisco +13, lean under 51
Massey-Peabody Line: New England -10, Total: 48.7