clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2017 NFL Draft order, Week 14: 49ers No. 1 pick odds improve

New, comments

The 49ers are in position to draft high in the 2017 NFL Draft. Here is where Football Outsiders odds currently stand, through 13 weeks.

The San Francisco 49ers are back for Week 14, as they are home to face the 3-9 New York Jets. The 49ers are 1-11 following their ugly loss to the Chicago Bears, while the Jets are coming off their own ugly loss to the Indianapolis Colts. The Jets made a change to start second year quarterback Bryce Petty, while the 49ers will stick with Colin Kaepernick after benching him in the fourth quarter against the Bears.

The 49ers further secured the No. 2 pick with the loss, sitting a game ahead of the 2-10 Jacksonville Jaguars, and a game back of the 0-12 Cleveland Browns. The Jets are tied with the Bears, and are currently tied with them in strength of schedule. The Browns host the Cincinnati Bengals, and will be starting Robert Griffin III for the first time since Week 1. The Jaguars host the 6-6 Minnesota Vikings, and the Bears travel to face the 8-4 Detroit Lions.

Our friends at Football Outsiders are back once again with their weekly look at playoff and draft odds. They provide percentages for several different potential outcomes on both sides of the league. They look at the chance to get into the playoffs, as well as potential results throughout the playoffs. On the other side of the ledger, they provide odds for the top pick in the draft, as well as a top five pick. Here is our look at the odds last week.

The 49ers have become close to assured of a top five pick. Where things get interesting this week is that their odds for the No. 1 pick increased. Last week, FO gave the 49ers an 11.9 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick, while the Browns were at 85.7 percent. This week, the 49ers increased to 18.8 percent, while the Browns decreased to 80.5 percent. The Browns last real chance of winning a game is this weekend against Cincinnati. Of course, the 49ers most significant remaining chance of winning is also this weekend against the Jets.

Here is where the top five odds stand.

1. Cleveland Browns: 80.5%, 100.0%
2. San Francisco 49ers: 18.8%, 99.7%
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.6%, 85.1%
4. New York Jets: 0.1%, 84.8%
5. Chicago Bears: 0.0%, 69.5%

Here’s what the 49ers remaining schedule looks like starting this week against the Bears. The remaining sub-.500 teams are the Jets, and Rams. Any given Sunday cliches aside, Sunday is the 49ers best chance of winning a game. They could also spring an upset in LA against the Rams, but if Jeff Fisher is going to secure another 7-9 record, they’ll probably need to beat the 49ers!

vs. Jets (3-9)
@ Falcons (7-5)
@ Rams (4-8)
vs. Seahawks (8-3-1)