Fooch's note: This is an old FanPost. I meant to bump it to the front page a while back, but now's as good a time as any.
In past years, I've provided analysis on the performance of our drafted picks in approximate value vs what we would expect their approximate value to be -- the residual Approximate Value. Well, 2015 CarAV numbers are in, and going back to 2011, no team has less Residual CarAV -- again value above what is expected based on the pick number -- than the San Francisco 49ers.
When looking at total CarAV, we are 29th - but that doesn't take into account extra picks acquired for Alex Smith and similar moves.
So, without further ado, here are the rankings.
|Tm||Total CarAV||Residual CarAV|
Our draft picks have been hot garbage, and there's no other way to describe it. I guess you could say that the Giants have been nearly as bad, but no -- not really! -- when you consider Baalke has blown extra picks!
PS - formulas. All are draft order (x) and CarAV (y). All roughly have an r^2 of 0.4
2011 = -10.82*LN(X) + 60.851
2012 = -7.101*LN(X) + 42.035
2013 = -4.52*LN(X) + 27.467
2014 = -3.496*LN(X) + 20.815
2015 = -1.677*LN(X) + 9.6996