clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2016 NFL standings predictions: Football Outsiders has some surprises in win totals

New, comments

I'm not surprised the 49ers do not get much love, but I am a little surprised by the Raiders. Aaron Schatz attempted to explain that number.

Yesterday, we looked at Todd McShay's 2017 NFL mock draft. The most interesting aspect of it was that McShay used Football Outsiders' preliminary win total projections to set the draft order. He did not include the specific win total numbers, but the order gave us a hint at some early projections for divisional standings. Football Outsiders is not saying the team will win X amount of games, but rather looks at the probabilities of various outcomes for the season. It's not an exact prediction, but it's an interesting look at the standings.

I thought it would be worth pulling out all the teams and figuring out what the divisional standings would look like based on those win totals. I've posted those down below. I think the most interesting has to be the Oakland Raiders. FO's win total puts them at the No. 5 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. The Raiders are coming off an improved 2015, and have gotten rave reviews for their offseason. FO founder Aaron Schatz acknowledged that projection seemed a bit off.

I do think Oakland will continue to improve, but I would snicker a bit if they struggled. I actually don't hate the Raiders, but their fans have returned to their insufferable nature, so a little comeuppance for the fans would not be the worst thing in the world!

The AFC North is top heavy, with three of the four teams earning playoff berths, while the Cleveland Browns end up with the No. 1 pick in these projections. On the other hand, the NFC East is bottom heavy. Dallas wins the division, and the other three teams are picking third, sixth, and seventh.

Here's how the division standings would look based on these FO win totals (with draft position in parenthesis):

NFC West
1. Cardinals (32)
2. Seahawks (28)
3. Rams (16)
4. 49ers (2)

NFC South
1. Panthers (23)
2. Saints (17)
3. Falcons (15)
4. Buccaneers (8)

NFC North
1. Packers (30)
2. Vikings (22)
3. Lions (19)
4. Bears (11)

NFC East
1. Cowboys (25)
2. Washington (7)
3. Eagles (6)
4. Giants (3)

AFC West
1. Chiefs (29)
2. Chargers (18)
3. Broncos (14)
4. Raiders (5)

AFC South
1. Texans (21)
2. Colts (13)
3. Jaguars (12)
4. Titans (10)

AFC North
1. Steelers (31)
2. Bengals (26)
3. Ravens (24)
4. Browns (1)

AFC East
1. Patriots (27)
2. Bills (20)
3. Jets (9)
4. Dolphins (4)