The start of the 2016 NFL preseason begins the long road to Black Monday, the day after the regular season when coach firings are most likely to happen. The San Francisco 49ers were part of that group this past season when they fired Jim Tomsula, and replaced him with Chip Kelly. Of course, Kelly was fired before Black Monday, getting canned after Week 16. He was the third coach fired during the season last year, following the Miami Dolphins (Joe Philbin) and the Tennessee Titans (Ken Whisenhunt).
The folks at bookmaker.eu recently posted odds on who would be the first head coach fired this season. Jim Caldwell of the Detroit Lions and Mike McCoy of the Chargers are at the top, close to co-favorites. Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick, and Bruce Arians all have the longest odds of being fired. Aside from committing some kind of felony, I don’t know what it would take for them to be fired this year.
Chip Kelly is listed with the sixth most likely odds. I am not surprised by that, but him getting fired in year one would take a pretty brutal season. And even then, it would also require the team regressing in ways that seem unlikely. The team could finish with a similar record to last year, but be an improved unit. It would take a worse record, worse play, and some other personality issues developing for the 49ers to seriously consider going through the hiring process for the third time in as many seasons.
Jim Caldwell +370
Mike McCoy +385
Jeff Fisher +700
Gus Bradley +1100
Jason Garrett +1100
Chip Kelly +1500
Bill O'Brien +1750
Chuck Pagano +1750
Sean Payton +2000
Dirk Koetter +2000
Mike Mularkey +2000
Jay Gruden +2000
Jack Del Rio +2500
John Fox +2500
Rex Ryan +2500
Doug Pederson +2500
Adam Gase +3000
Hue Jackson +3300
Dan Quinn +3500
Todd Bowles +4000
John Harbaugh +4000
Ben McAdoo +4500
Marvin Lewis +5000
Mike Zimmer +7500
Gary Kubiak +10000
Andy Reid +10000
Mike Tomlin +10000
Ron Rivera +10000
Mike McCarthy +15000
Pete Carroll +25000
Bill Belichick +25000
Bruce Arians +25000