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NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: Is the spread too high for 49ers-Seahawks?

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The San Francisco 49ers are 9.5-point underdogs on the road against the Seattle Seahawks. Can they spring the upset? Time for my LVH SuperContest picks, as well as my picks for the remaining games.

Welcome back for Week 3 of the 2016 NFL season. The San Francisco 49ers travel to face the Seattle, and are 9.5-point underdogs. Well, that’s the line I get in my weekly SuperContest picks, but quite a few sportsbooks have bumped it to 10 or 10.5

The Seahawks have covered against the 49ers ten straight games heading into Sunday. Seattle was a 14-point favorite last year at home, and beat the 49ers 29-13. During the 49ers descent to the bottom of the league the last two seasons, the Seahawks have won all four matchups by double digit points.

This is a different 49ers team than the last two seasons. They can cover with a strong defensive performance and mistake-free football on the offensive side of the ball. The problem is I don’t think we see the mistake-free football. Blaine Gabbert struggles with accuracy, and that does not bode well against the Seahawks secondary.

The 49ers running backs have also had trouble holding onto the ball. San Francisco dominated the Rams in Week 1, and had their chances in Week 2 against the Panthers. I think in Week 3, we see the Seahawks offense show some signs of life, and 49ers offensive turnovers are the difference in this one. I don’t think this is a blowout, but I think the Seahawks win this something like 17-7. If you can get 10.5 points, it might be worth grabbing.

For the third straight season, I am back for the LVH SuperContest. SB Nation's partners over at Odds Shark are sponsoring my entry again. The contest requires selecting 5 games each week and picking them against the spread. This year's contest is expected to have over 1,800 participants, which is a new record for the SuperContest. SB Nation is represented by myself and Matt Ufford, and there are folks from all over the blogosphere involved. Everybody picks their own five games and there will be a running leaderboard HERE. You can follow my standings under the name "Fooch.”

I’m off to a horrific start in the SuperContest, going 1-4 each of the first two weeks (Week 1, Week 2). I’m near the bottom at 2-8, while first place is 10-0. Suffice to say, I need to get it in gear soon.

Here are my SuperContest picks for Week 3:

TITANS (-1.5) over Raiders
BILLS (+4) over Cardinals
JAGUARS (PK) over Ravens
SEAHAWKS (-9.5) over 49ers
Chargers (+3) over COLTS

Yep, I’m picking against the 49ers. I do think the 49ers will be able to hang around in this game, but there will be at least one key turnover that turns this into a double digit Seahawks win. Even if the Seahawks offense doesn’t get going too well, a short field on a turnover would provide them the space for that score. If the 49ers offense can avoid turnovers, they can most definitely win this game. But I’m just not confident about that.

The Titans, Bills, and Chargers picks are about going against the public. The Raiders and Cardinals are getting a lot money, with the Cardinals among the most heavily bet teams this week. Losing Sammy Watkins hurts the Bills, and they have been pretty bad, but that early kickoff for the west coast team gives me some incentive.

Here are all my picks for Week 3:

PATRIOTS vs. Houston (-1): Texans - Lost
BENGALS vs. Broncos (+3.5): Bengals
TITANS vs. Raiders (+1.5): Titans
BILLS vs. Cardinals (-4): Bills
JAGUARS vs. Ravens (PK): Jaguars
DOLPHINS vs. Browns (+9.5): Browns
GIANTS vs. Washington (+4.5): Washington
PACKERS vs. Lions (+7.5): Lions
PANTHERS vs. Vikings (+7): Vikings
SEAHAWKS vs. 49ers (+9.5): Seahawks
BUCCANEERS vs. Rams (+5.5):
EAGLES vs. Steelers (-3.5): Eagles
CHIEFS vs. Jets (+3): Chiefs
COLTS vs. Chargers (+3): Chargers
COWBOYS vs. Bears (+7.5): Bears
SAINTS vs. Falcons (+3): Falcons