The San Francisco 49ers will host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 7, but there is a big unknown heading into the game. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is under suspension by the NFL, but he is expected to appeal a court ruling that reinstated the suspension. There is no word on the timing of an appeal, but it could impact the coming week’s game.
Sports books have opened the line for 49ers-Cowboys, and it is ranging between 4.5 points and six points, according to Odds Shark. Most sports books are sticking with six points for now, but a couple have gone with 4.5 points. I spoke with Todd Fuhrman of the Bet The Board podcast, and he thinks if Ezekiel Elliott ends up suspended for the game, it would move the line no more than a point or a point and a half.
My guess is Elliott ends up playing on Sunday. He has an appeals process to work through in Texas, but could also file for a separate injunction in New York. There re jurisdictional issues at play that will impact all this. Civil procedure was my least favorite law school class, but also arguably the most important. I have a hunch this takes a little while longer.
As a home team, you get approximately three points on the line. Some stadiums have a better home field advantage, but at three points, this suggests if the game was in Dallas, the Cowboys would be a 12-point favorite. That is worth factoring in to some extent.
The 49ers are 0-6, but their five straight games losing by a field goal or less has them 4-2 against the spread. If Elliott plays and the line remains around six points, do you lay or take the points? I’m inclined to take the points. The 49ers are playing well, and Dallas is just not a particularly good football team right now. They’re better than the 49ers, but I could see another close game.