The San Francisco 49ers enter the second half of their schedule this Sunday when they host the Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers are winless through eight games. The addition of Jimmy Garoppolo adds significant buzz around the franchise, but as Kyle Shanahan said on Wednesday, the team did not acquire Garoppolo to save this season.
The 49ers are currently tied with the Cleveland Browns for the worst record in the NFL. The Browns are an atrocious team right now, and have a decent-sized lead in the strength of schedule tiebreaker. Behind the 49ers sit the New York Giants at 1-6, the Indianapolis Colts at 2-6, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 2-5.
Football Outsiders put together their latest playoff odds, which also include a look at the contenders for the top pick in the draft. The numbers are compiled by running a simulation of the season 50,000 times, and it allows the team to project probabilities for victories over the remaining schedule.
FO founder Aaron Schatz offered up probabilities for wins over the 49ers remaining eight games. It is not surprising that the top two chances are the Arizona Cardinals this week (57 percent) and the New York Giants next week (48 percent). They are followed by Week 13 vs. the Chicago Bears (41 percent), and Week 15 vs. the Tennessee Titans (39 percent).
Most likely SF wins this year according to FO playoff odds sim: Wk 9 (ARI) 57%, Wk 10 (NYG) 48%, Wk 13 (at CHI) 41%, Wk 15 (TEN) 39%.— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) November 1, 2017
It is hard to assess what the addition of Jimmy Garoppolo means to all this. The 49ers will eventually make the switch to him, but we don’t know if it will happen in the next week or two, right after the bye, or even beyond that. My guess is he starts Week 12 vs. the Seattle Seahawks. It is mostly a guess, but it makes the most logical sense right now.
Once Garoppolo enters the lineup, I’d be curious to see how much that potentially changes some of these probabilities. There’s not a lot to work with in terms of regular season on-field performance, so it could very well mean nothing. It’s tough to say right now as the 49ers pursuit of a high draft picks continues.