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49ers-Jaguars Madden 18 simulation

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The steady climb of wins now hits one of the ultimate tests.

Image by @LinusJorgensen 

The Jacksonville Jaguars sit at an 82 Madden ranking while the San Francisco 49ers sit at 77. With a one point differential, the 49ers struggled mightily, five points means this is not going to end well.

I have little confidence that the simulations here will be similar to Sunday. I don’t think they will win, but I don’t think they will lose like this.

Quarter Length: 6 Minutes
Games Simulated: 3
Notable inactives for 49ers: Greg Mabin
Notable inactives for Jaguars: Marqis Lee (WR), Larry Pinkard (WR)

Not Garoppolo’s finest performance

It’s getting redundant at this point since Madden has 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo going on a skid in every game, only for Jimmy G to put up career numbers, yet again. But...uh...yet again. Madden doesn’t think Jimmy G can do it. One of the three games he managed a paltry 70 yards and a 38.8 completion percentage. His actual average? 169 yards, a 50.2 percent completion rate and 1 interception per game. Meanwhile, Jaguars QB Blake Bortles threw for 242 yards and a 61 percent completion percentage.

49ers defense can’t stop Leonard Fournette

Well this is...depressing. The 49ers defense which has been stout against the run the last couple games allows the Jaguars running back an average of 125 rushing yards. Receiving, Fournette would average 68 yards as well. The 49ers defense has seen improvement in recent weeks, but it’s been improvement that comes with little confidence. Hopefully the running defense that has allowed under 4 yards a carry in recent weeks continues their trend.

On the flipside, Carlos Hyde averaged only 62 yards. Surprise, surprise.

Joe Staley has a bad game

The Jaguars defense averaged 2.5 sacks in the simulations. Breaking it down game-by-game, all but one of those were on the shoulders of Joe Staley. The 49ers offensive tackle is the lone piece on the line that everyone can agree in unison as being actually kind of good, so it’s disheartening to know he’s not functioning against the pass rush. On the flipside, the Jaguars defensive front is one of the best in the league and absolutely filthy against the best offensive lines, so maybe it’s just a unnatural reality.

Final Score: 37-15, Jaguars

The Jaguars pull this thing out handily and managed to put this out of reach before the middle of the 3rd quarter. While I doubt the 49ers can win on Sunday, I don’t think they lose in this fashion. I see something more in the vein of a 24-17 loss than something like this. The 49ers have gelled too much and come too far to have a blowout like this. Especially when shots were fired that this is a T-shirt and hat game.