The San Francisco 49ers are one of many new teams that will be looking for quarterbacks this offseason. The team met with Colin Kaepernick on Wednesday, but whether or not he opts out of his contract, he is the only 49ers quarterback under contract for the time being.
The 49ers might elect to draft a QB and sign one or two veterans, but another option is making a move for Jimmy Garoppolo. The New England Patriots quarterback is arguably the best young option that will be available, and there will be a decent sized market for him.
ESPN’s Mike Sando recently looked at six teams in need of a quarterback and put together his thoughts on the lowest and highest offers they might make. He does not have insight from the Patriots, so there are limitations to what he can project, but he spoke with five NFL decision-makers to get their thoughts on potential cost. He then applied that to the 49ers, Browns, Bears, Jets, Bills, and Texans, all of whom are or could be in the market for a new quarterback.
For the 49ers, Sando suggested a low offer would include the team’s second and fifth round picks in the 2017 NFL Draft. A high offer would include the team’s second round pick in 2017, and a first round pick in 2018. Sando posted a price lower for the 49ers than that of other teams because he thinks the Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch can afford to move more methodically than other coach/GMs due to their new six-year contracts.
A big talking point with regard to Garoppolo is last year’s Sam Bradford trade. The Minnesota Vikings gave up a first and fourth round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft to acquire Bradford from the Philadelphia Eagles. That was a “future” pick since it happened during 2016. He looks at the 49ers low end offer as worth the equivalent of a late first round pick given that the 49ers hold the No. 2 pick in the second round.
One “insider” described the Bradford trade as a serious panic move, and while it might have made sense for Minnesota at the time, “I don't think that becomes the market. Philly basically got bailed out by a team that was desperate.”
Sando offer this up in regards to desperation potentially seeping and moving this to the 49ers higher offer.
Upgrading the 2017 fifth-rounder to a 2018 first-rounder would push the package's overall value into the range of a 2017 pick in the middle of the first round. That calculation would reflect the value chart teams typically use as a general guide when trading selections, despite protestations from academics who think the chart overvalues the highest picks, which it does, in part because teams moving up are frequently willing to pay a premium. In this example, the 2018 first-rounder would be valued more like a 2017 pick in the second round.
Here are the offers Sando suggested for the other five teams. He included the Texans as a longer shot with the notion that they would acquire Garoppolo and then extend him next year after they can release Brock Osweiler and not carry much dead money. That’s a tough sell considering other teams would be prepared to give Garoppolo and long-term deal immediately. You can read more of his analysis on each offer here.
Cleveland Browns
Lower offer: 2017 second-rounder and 2017 fifth-rounder
Higher offer: 2017 first-rounder (No. 12) and a 2018 conditional fourth-rounder
Chicago Bears
Lower offer: 2017 second-rounder and 2017 fifth-rounder, plus a conditional 2018 choice TBD
Higher offer: 2017 second-rounder and 2018 first-rounder, plus a conditional 2018 choice TBD
New York Jets
Lower offer: 2017 second-round and 2017 fifth-rounder, plus a conditional 2018 choice TBD
Higher offer: 2017 first-rounder (No. 6), plus a conditional 2018 choice TBD
Buffalo Bills
Lower offer: 2017 second-rounder and 2017 fifth-rounder, plus a conditional 2018 choice TBD
Higher offer: 2017 first-rounder (No. 10) and a conditional 2018 pick TBD
Houston Texans
Lower offer: 2017 second-rounder
Higher offer: N/A