Over the weekend, I posted something on how a gambling analyst suggested staying away from the 49ers win total and Super Bowl wager. The latter makes sense, but the former has been busy over the past couple months.
The 49ers win total was set at 4.5, and early wagering was hitting the OVER. The South Point’s chief oddsmaker was surprised by that because of the roster issues. Kyle Shanahan brings plenty of optimism, but the oddsmaker was surprised by the action given the talent level.
While oddsmakers might be a bit surprised, that is not stopping them from adjusting to reflect the bettor optimism. When Bovada released their opening win totals on May 8, they set the win total at 4.5, but made the OVER a slight favorite. The OVER was set at -130, while the UNDER was set at even money. That means, if you wanted to bet the OVER, you had to bet $130 to win $100. If you wanted to bet the UNDER, you had to bet $100 to win $100.
I took a look at Bovada’s numbers today. The win total remains 4.5, but the OVER is now set at -150 (bet $150 to win $100) and the UNDER is +120 (bet $100 to win $120). Oddsmakers don’t make many changes to the actual win number, but to reflect certain wagering, they will adjust the vig to make you bet more to take advantage of a popular wager. In this case, the OVER has become even more of a favorite, thus requiring more money to bet on it.
I do think the 49ers can get past 4.5 wins, but the UNDER is becoming a more interesting bet. I’m probably not going to bet on it anytime soon, but if that UNDER number continues to increase, it will be tempting.