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Kyle Shanahan odds will not change among head coaches to get fired

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He has a long leash for the time being.

NFL: Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL season is a week old, and there are at least a few head coaches on the hot seat, or at least feeling it warm up. Chuck Pagano is surely on the hot seat, and likely was even before his Indianapolis Colts got thumped by the Los Angeles Rams. Todd Bowles is in a clear rebuilding project with the New York Jets, but if they struggle for an extended period, he could be out the door. And Marvin Lewis seems to be perpetually on the hot seat.

An online sportsbook put together some updated odds on who will be the first head coach fired, and it is not surprising Kyle Shanahan’s odds did not change. He opened at +7500, and remains at +7500. The San Francisco 49ers took a bad loss to the Carolina Panthers, but only Andy Reid (+10000), Pete Carroll (+15000), and Bill Belichick (+50000) have longer odds to be first fired. Todd Bowles (+300), Chuck Pagano (+350), and Hue Jackson (+675) currently lead the way.

The 49ers are expected to lose a lot of games this season, but they are in a rebuilding process with a new head coach signed to a six-year contract. I asked them what it would take to drop Shanahan’s odds of being first coach fired.

“We'd drop his odds if the Niners went on an extended (double digits) losing streak or if there was some sort of locker room/front office turmoil. The new or rookie head coaches certainly have a grace period when it comes to the firing odds.”

If the 49ers opened the season 0-14, I don’t think Shanahan would get fired, but clearly it would create some tension. However, a coach is all but assured of getting canned at some point during the season. Shanahan will get long odds in part because the long losing streak that would be required to get fired would likely carry him past the first head coach being fired.

All this is to say, you probably should not bet money on Kyle Shanahan being the first head coach fired this year. If I were a betting man, Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien is an intriguing option. He is installed at +800, even with John Fox and just behind Marvin Lewis. If DeShaun Watson emerges as a force in these next few weeks, O’Brien will not get fired. But if the Texans look more like the team that got thumped by the Jacksonville Jaguars, O’Brien could be in serious trouble.