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NFL picks against the spread, Week 2: SuperContest picks, all picks

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The San Francisco 49ers are 14-point underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks to open the season. I’m back with my second week of LVH SuperContest picks, as well as my picks for the remaining games.

Super Bowl 50 Proposition Bets At The Westgate Las Vegas Race & Sports SuperBook Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Welcome back to Week 2 of the NFL season! The Houston Texans got their first win with an ugly road victory over the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football. I had the Texans covering the spread, but I think the Bengals would win a close one. I’ll take the cover!

The San Francisco 49ers are back in action at 1:25 p.m. PT on Sunday when they face the Seattle Seahawks up at CenturyLink Field. The 49ers are a sizable 14-point underdog, heading into a site they have not won in since 2011. The 49ers were last favored against Seattle Thanksgiving 2014, and were last favored in Seattle Christmas Even 2011, when they won 19-17. The 49ers have not covered the spread in Seattle since a 33-30 win in 2008. Consider this foreshadowing for later in the article.

For the fourth straight season, I am back for the Westgate SuperContest. SB Nation's partners over at Odds Shark are sponsoring my entry again. The contest requires selecting 5 games each week and picking them against the spread. This year's contest is expected to have over 2,700 participants, which is a new record for the SuperContest. SB Nation is represented by myself, Matt Ufford, and Jason Kirk, and there are folks from all over the blogosphere involved. I am off to a less than stellar start, going 2-3 with my Week 1 picks. It was not ideal, but I suppose it could have been worse. There is a running leaderboard here, but you can check how I’m doing against my Odds Shark teammates here. You can follow my standings under the name "Fooch.”

Here’s my Week 2 SuperContest picks:

STEELERS (-5.5) over Vikings
CHARGERS (-4) over Dolphins
Washington (+2.5) over RAMS
SEAHAWKS (-14) over 49ers
GIANTS (-3.5) over Lions

Yep, I’m picking against the 49ers this week. I’d love to see them keep this close, or even shock the Seahawks outright, but I just don’t see it. The 49ers defensive front could find success against the Seahawks offensive line, but I think the Seahawks defense could do some ridiculous damage to the 49ers offense. I just don’t think the 49ers can score enough points to cover even a double digit spread.

Three of my picks are based on an interesting percentage that has stood out the past five years. Teams that lose on the road in their opener and then play at home in Week 2 have covered the spread 65 percent of the time. That influenced me on the Seahawks pick, and is a big reason I went with the Chargers and Giants this week. Given the Lions win last week and the Giants struggles against Dallas, that line just screams of oddsmakers trying to get the public to put money on the Lions.

I would not be surprised if the Rams offense was for real under Sean McVay, but I also think there could be an overreaction to their big Week 1 win and Washington’s home loss to the Eagles. Kirk Cousins is just a little bit better than Scott Tolzien, and they bring at least a moderately better defense than the slop the Colts throw out there. The Rams could very well win this game, but I’m not buying into them entirely yet.

Here are all my picks for Week 1. I was 6-8-1 overall last week:

BENGALS vs. Texans (+6.5): Texans - WIN
JAGUARS vs. Titans (-2.5): Jagurs
RAVENS vs. Browns (+8): Browns
PANTHERS vs. Bills (+7): Panthers
SAINTS vs. Patriots (-6.5): Saints
COLTS vs. Cardinals (-7): Colts
CHIEFS vs. Eagles (+5.5): Chiefs
STEELERS vs. Vikings (+5.5): Steelers
BUCCANEERS vs. Bears (+7): Bucs
CHARGERS vs. Dolphins (+4): Chargers
RAIDERS vs. Jets (+14): Jets
RAMS vs. Washington (+2.5): Washington
BRONCOS vs. Cowboys (-2.5): Broncos
SEAHAWKS vs. 49ers (+14): Seahawks
FALCONS vs. Packers (+3): Falcons
GIANTS vs. Lions (+3.5): Giants