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NFL picks, Week 4: Straight up, and considering Survivor pool strategy

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We’re back with more NFL picks, including a look at the 49ers, Week 4 straight up picks, a Survivor pool, and a look at Thursday Night Football against the spread.

Arizona Cardinals v Carolina Panthers Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Welcome back for Week 4 of the 2017 NFL season. The San Francisco 49ers have had some time off following their Thursday Night Football contest, and now they head to the desert to face off against their division rivals, the Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers are a touchdown underdog as they begin a three-game road trip. It’s not an ideal game, but coming off an extra three days rest, I’m really intrigued by them against the spread.

In the meantime, the week gets gets going on Thursday with another division rivalry. The Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears, and I am very tempted by Packers in my Survivor pool. I’m back for my fourth pick in a Survivor pool. In a Survivor Pool, you pick a different team each week. You can only pick a team once. If your team wins you stay alive. I have set it up so you get two strikes. If you lose once, you get another chance. If you lose twice, you’re out. Once you pick a team, you can no longer pick them this season.

I rode the New York Jets early on, taking the Buffalo Bills and Oakland Raiders in Weeks 1 and 2. I moved on to the Philadelphia Eagles over the New York Giants in Week 3. I was not sold on the Miami Dolphins going on the road against the Jets, and it paid off for me.

This week, I’m considering two options. I’m looking at the Packers over the Bears, and then I am also looking at the Seattle Seahawks at home against the Indianapolis Colts. Part of the Survivor strategy is considering future games. With the Packers, a pick this week sacrifices home games against the Saints and Ravens, and a road game against the Browns. With the Seahawks, a pick this week sacrifices a road game at Levi’s Stadium, and home games against the Texans, Rams, and Cardinals. It’s a tough call, although the Seahawks at home seems like the safer pick.

With the Packers and Bears kicking off tonight, I’m inclined to wait on this pick just to see what new information I have heading into Sunday. Thursday games can be incredibly wild. The Packers are a touchdown favorite at home, with a sizable chunk of public money coming in on them. The Packers had to put together a huge comeback against Cincinnati last weekend, while the Bears had a big home upset of Pittsburgh. I’d love to bet on the Bears, but I just don’t see it working out. I think we see the Packers take care of business in this one.

Who are you taking?

Bears @ Packers: Packers
Saints vs. Dolphins (London): Saints
Bills @ Falcons: Falcons
Bengals @ Browns: Browns
Rams @ Cowboys: Cowboys
Lions @ Vikings: Vikings
Panthers @ Patriots: Patriots
Jaguars @ Jets: Jaguars
Steelers @ Ravens: Ravens
Titans @ Texans: Texans
49ers @ Cardinals: 49ers
Eagles @ Chargers: Eagles
Giants @ Buccaneers: Bucs
Raiders @ Broncos: Broncos
Colts @ Seahawks: Seahawks
Washington @ Chiefs: Chiefs