Fooch's note: There will be plenty of disagreement on this strategy, but it's an interesting take.
I'm proposing that we should only spend about 23M in annual contracts in free agency. That does not include re-signing 49ers, which I am treating separately. It's enough for a Center, a CB, and 1 or 2 lower cost players. It also does not include smaller single year contracts to help fill out the roster.
Background
Back in 2012 the 49ers maxed out our player spend. It made sense. We were competing for Super Bowls. The problem is that then we had to start making hard choices. We let some of the wrong players go, and then the players we were counting on got hurt or retired. Things like this can't be prevented completely, but our chances are best if we can develop a young nucleus of talent and then keep them together. With all the moves the FO made this year I believe we have that nucleus.
It's hard to make long term plans in the NFL...at least, good ones. There's too much uncertainty year-to-year. So, here is "A" plan, that may not end up being right, but I think is representative of our future. First, the contracts:
Hypothetical Choices
Years | $M/Yr | Total | Starting | 2018-2021 | FA | ||
2018 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 26 | 104 | 2018 | 104 | 2022 |
2018 | Trenton Brown | 3 | 9 | 27 | 2019 | 27 | 2022 |
2018 | Jaquiski Tartt | 4 | 7 | 28 | 2019 | 21 | 2023 |
2018 | Carlos Hyde | 4 | 5 | 20 | 2018 | 20 | 2022 |
2019 | Marquise Goodwin | 3 | 7 | 21 | 2019 | 21 | 2022 |
2019 | DeForest Buckner | 4 | 16 | 64 | 2020 | 32 | 2024 |
2019 | Kyle Nelson | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2019 | 3 | 2022 |
2019 | Bradley Pinion | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2019 | 6 | 2022 |
2020 | Sheldon Day (as our NT) | 3 | 8 | 24 | 2020 | 16 | 2023 |
2020 | Erik Magnuson | 4 | 8 | 32 | 2020 | 16 | 2024 |
2020 | Ahkello Witherspoon | 3 | 12 | 36 | 2021 | 12 | 2024 |
2020 | Adrian Colbert | 4 | 10 | 40 | 2021 | 10 | 2025 |
2020 | George Kittle | 4 | 8 | 32 | 2021 | 8 | 2025 |
296 |
That's 4-5 contracts per year. More importantly, it minimizes and smooths out turnover. Key departures by year:
Key Departures | |
2018 | Eric Reid, Brandon Fusco, Dontae Johnson, Brock Coyle |
2019 | Arik Armstead, Eli Harold, Jimmy Ward |
2020 | Joe Staley, Pierre Garcon, Joshua Garnett, Garett Celek |
2021 | Kyke Juszczyk, Solomon Thomas, Trent Taylor, K'Waun Williams |
Don't agree with the choices? Some of them are placeholders. For example, I've got Magnuson getting an extension in 2 years, but maybe it's Garnett instead. It doesn't really change anything regarding the numbers. My goal is never losing more than 4 of our top 25 players in any year.
These are all multi-year deals. I'm also allocating a small amount of money for short term deals. For this season, I would sign the following (assuming they would sign - not sure of market yet):
Short Term Deals | |
Daniel Kilgore, 1@2.5M | As a backup |
Cassius Marsh, 1@2M | Compete with Dumervil for Edge rusher role |
Leger Douzable, 1@1.5M | Backup Big DE (could be Tank, but assuming he's cheaper) |
I like Brock Coyle and Fusco also, but was trying to keep within the 6M budget. I would also bring back Raheem Mostert if healthy, because as an ERFA he's relatively cheap.
OK, how much cap space is left?
Cap Space | ||
Total Salary Cap (18-21) | 729 | Assuming caps of 174, 180, 185, 190. A higher cap would give us a little more space now but I would have to revise future contracts higher for inflation so not worth arguing. |
Rollover | 56.9 | (+) |
Cap Savings from Cuts | 20 | Estimating 20-30M. Not sure it's prudent to go higher (+) |
Carry into 2022 | 10 | Always gotta have some cap space at the end of the year (-) |
Subtotal | 795.9 | |
Expenditures | ||
Under Contract (18-21) | 259 | overthecap.com, includes dead money |
Extensions | 296 | from list above, only capturing spend attributed to 2018-2021 |
Cost of Draft Picks | 100 | Assuming 10M/yr for a new draft class (still cheap when you consider it's for over 30+ players) |
Practice Squad | 4 | 1M per year |
Low Budget FA (6M/yr) | 24 | Money each year to sign 2-3 one year contracts to fill out the roster |
Reserve of IR (5M/yr) | 20 | Guys signed in-season to fill gaps still count against the cap |
Subtotal | 703 | |
Net | 92.9 | 795.9 - 703 |
Per Year Equivalent | 23.225 | 92.9/4. This is how much we have to spend this year, in annual contracts. |
YOU BASTARD, WHAT DID YOU DO WITH MY MONEY?
Well, that's the point. You can blow your wad of cash now and then fingers crossed for the next 2-3 years, or, you can build a plan and then we might be looking at the next 7-10 years instead. $23M/yr is enough to sign a top center (10M), a decent CB (8M), and then still have enough for a TE or mid-level Guard. You could also go with an edge guy (15M), still get a cheaper center (6M), and then a journeyman CB (2M).
Basically, not saying we won't spend any money, but don't be surprised when we are more reserved in FA.
Team Needs
We've got plenty of areas we can improve on, but to be competitive you can't have any weaknesses. I also believe you should never count on draft picks starting in year 1. Even first rounders need time to develop. If your a rebuilding team then maybe you throw them out there, but I'm saying we are not rebuilding, we are built. This means you have to fix your holes in FA. For us:
RB | I like Brieda, but I don't trust him as our starter. I've got Carlos Hyde coming back for 5M/yr, but we could go with a FA (e.g. McKinnon from Vikings). I wouldn't exceed this budget. |
Center (IOL) |
I'm bringing back Kilgore if the money works, but as a backup. There is a good chance Ryan Jensen, or Weston Richberg (Giants) is available. My sleeper is Senio Kelemete (Saints backup - also plays guard) as a potentially less expensive option. Started off the year well but then faded. I just like having another center from the Saints (lol). I'm fine with Tomlinson, Garnett, and Magnuson competing for the guard spots. A new center will make them look better. If it works out that we can bring Fusco back also then great. |
CB | Avoid the top guys and find a solid starter. Potentially keep Jimmy Ward around as insurance (I am on the fence on this - 8,5M is too much for a backup). The team could plan on starting Ward and then signing a cheaper option for support. Keep an eye out for DeShawn Shead, age 29, from Seattle (recovering from ACL). |
Edge |
Starting Armstead at LEO again. Marsh or Dumervil as 3rd down pass rushers. Looking to the draft also, but our first round pick, the most likely place to find a starter, will probably be OL. If a top Edge rusher becomes available in FA then I absolutely pursue. I just don't think it's going to happen. A would consider trading up in the draft, maybe giving up our second to move from 10 -> 6, if it meant we could find a pass rusher we coveted. That's the most I would give up, however, because we still have a lot of team needs to address beyond these listed. |
Anyway, if you made it to here then thanks for reading, and let me know your thoughts. Hopefully I've got the calc's right. A lot of this approach is about risk management. By not overspending this year, we will have money to fix whatever isn't working next year. We still have to spend some money, and we will, just not as much as the media may portray. This also highlights why its important not to overpay players. Even though we have a lot of cap space right now we will need it in the near future.