The San Francisco 49ers lost a heart-breaker to the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football to close out Week 6, and things only get more difficult in Week 7. The 49ers return home to host the undefeated Los Angeles Rams at Levi’s Stadium in a game flexed out of Sunday Night Football, and into the 1:25 p.m. PT slot on CBS.
It should surprise nobody that the 49ers are a sizable underdog in this one. Even though they are playing at home, the 49ers are currently a 10-point underdog to the Rams, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. The line got as high as 11 at some places, and is as low as 9.5 points at others.
Teams get roughly three points (give or take) for home-field advantage. Conceivably this means the 49ers would be 16 point underdogs in LA. By comparison, the Buffalo Bills were 16.5 point underdogs before their upset in Minnesota, and that is the biggest line of the year. The 49ers don’t play in LA until Week 17, at which point the Rams could be resting numerous players.
While this is a big line, it actually moved in favor of the 49ers entering Tuesday. Last week, the Westgate Superbook released their look-ahead lines, and they had the 49ers installed as a 12.5-point underdog. The look-ahead line is a peak ahead to give us some context about what that week’s performance means for the line. In this case, the Westgate opened the line at 11, 1.5 points less than the look-ahead line. Cooper Kupp is not expected to play, so that might be the reason for the change. However, the 49ers put up a respectable showing in Green Bay, so the oddsmakers may think more 49ers money might come in.
Regardless of what happens the rest of the week, San Francisco will be looking at another big line. They ended up in the 9.5 to 10 point range against Green Bay, but did manage the cover. This marks the second time in three weeks (also vs. Los Angeles Chargers) they’ve covered in a game where they were expected to get blown out. Might we see it again this Sunday against the Rams?