The San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals square off this weekend in what is effectively the opposite of a potential playoff preview. Any drama for fans will be who gets a slight upper-hand in the race for a higher draft pick.
It is worth noting again that draft tiebreakers do not include head-to-head performance. There are only two tiebreakers. The first is strength of schedule, with the weaker SOS getting the better pick. If SOS is tied, the only other tiebreaker is a coin flip at the NFL Combine.
Football Outsiders updated their playoff and draft picks odds, and the Cardinals and 49ers are atop the list for both No. 1 pick odds and top five pick odds. The Cardinals have a 35.4 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick and an 86.4 percent chance at a top five pick. The 49ers have a 21.3 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick and a 71.2 percent chance at a top five pick.
The top five teams in the draft odds remain the same, but the Giants’ loss to the Falcons bumped them up from 8.0 percent to 11.2 percent for the No. 1 overall pick. It is interesting that the one-win Giants and Raiders are behind the two-win Bills in the odds. It likely has to do with the Bills remaining schedule being absolutely brutal. I’ve included remaining schedules below for the top seven teams in playoff odds.
Draft order remaining schedule, Weeks 8-17
| Week | 49ers | Cardinals | Bills | Raiders | Giants | Browns | Colts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week | 49ers | Cardinals | Bills | Raiders | Giants | Browns | Colts |
| 8 | @ Cardinals | vs. 49ers | vs. Patriots | vs. Colts | vs. Washington | @ Steelers | @ Raiders |
| 9 | vs. Raiders | BYE | vs. Bears | @ 49ers | BYE | vs. Chiefs | BYE |
| 10 | vs. Giants | @ Chiefs | @ Jets | vs. Chargers | @ 49ers | vs. Falcons | vs. Jaguars |
| 11 | BYE | vs. Raiders | BYE | @ Cardinals | vs. Bucs | BYE | vs. Titans |
| 12 | @ Bucs | @ Chargers | vs. Jaguars | @ Ravens | @ Eagles | @ Bengals | vs. Dolphins |
| 13 | @ Seahawks | @ Packers | @ Dolphins | vs. Chiefs | vs. Bears | @ Texans | @ Jaguars |
| 14 | vs. Broncos | vs. Lions | vs. Jets | vs. Steelers | @ Washington | vs. Panthers | @ Texans |
| 15 | vs. Seahawks | @ Falcons | vs. Lions | @ Bengals | vs. Titans | @ Broncos | vs. Cowboys |
| 16 | vs. Bears | vs. Rams | @ Patriots | vs. Broncos | @ Colts | vs. Bengals | vs. Giants |
| 17 | @ Rams | @Seahawks | vs. Dolphins | @ Chiefs | vs. Cowboys | @ Ravens | @ Titans |