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49ers odds for top draft pick not quite as high as you might expect

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Week 12 could be the make or break week.

The San Francisco 49ers currently hold the top pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, but plenty can change between now and the end of the season. The 49ers, Cardinals, and Raiders all have a 2-8 record, but strength of schedule currently favors San Francisco. In light of how close the three teams are, it is not surprising a couple sets of draft order odds think it is likely something does change by the time Week 17 comes to a close.

Football Outsiders updated their weekly playoff and draft odds, and they have the 49ers holding the third best odds of claiming the No. 1 overall pick. Arizona has top odds at 30.8 percent, followed by the Raiders at 28.6 percent, and then the 49ers at 27.6 percent.

Meanwhile, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has the Cardinals with an even bigger chance at the No. 1 pick. It has the Cardinals chances at 46.1 percent, followed by the Raiders at 21.9 percent, and then the 49ers at 20.7 percent. It shows a nearly 90 percent chance that one of those three teams will hold the first overall pick.

This week, the 49ers travel to face the Buccaneers, the Cardinals travel to face the Chargers, and the Raiders travel to face the Ravens. The 49ers have the best shot at a win, which is likely why their odds are less than Arizona and Oakland.

After this week, it is entirely possible the teams all lose out the rest of the way. The Raiders most intriguing game might be Week 17 against the Chiefs, since Kansas City could be resting players depending on how the next five weeks go. Meanwhile, Arizona gets a home game against Detroit and a road game against Atlanta. Those are their two most winnable remaining games.

That could make Week 12 the make or break week for the 49ers chances at the top pick. Plenty could happen the final five weeks, but with a winnable game in Tampa Bay, we might look back on this week as when things solidified one way or the other.

Poll

Who will have the #1 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft?

This poll is closed

  • 33%
    49ers
    (206 votes)
  • 43%
    Raiders
    (266 votes)
  • 21%
    Cardinals
    (133 votes)
  • 0%
    Other (specify in comments)
    (6 votes)
611 votes total Vote Now