Last weekend was a wild one for folks tracking the top of the 2019 NFL Draft order. The San Francisco 49ers, Oakland Raiders, and New York Jets all won. The Arizona Cardinals lost to drop into a tie with the 49ers and Raiders at 3-10 heading into the final three weeks of the season.
The NFL kicked off Week 15 on Thursday with a wild Chargers-Chiefs game, and we’re bac for another look at Football Outsiders’ draft pick odds. They run simulations using weighted DVOA to assess playoff and draft pick odds each week. Through 14 weeks plus TNF, Arizona is atop the odds chart with 47.2 percent odds of claiming the No. 1 pick and 95.9 percent odds of claiming a top five pick. The 49ers are second with 34.1 percent odds for the No. 1 pick and 93.8 percent odds of claiming a top five pick. The Raiders are third at 10.1 percent and 84.4 percent, respectively.
The strength of schedule tiebreaker got a whole lot more interesting last week. The 49ers, Cardinals and Raiders are tied at 3-10, but the 49ers and Cardinals are tied with the weakest SOS at .529. The Raiders are at .566. The next tiebreaker is common divisional games, then common conference games, and finally a coin flip.
The 49ers and Cardinals play a lot of similar opponents given their same divisional position. The only difference in schedule is their NFC East and NFC South opponents. The 49ers faced the Giants and Bucs, while Arizona faced Washington and faces the Falcons this weekend.
Each week, as long as the strength of schedule tiebreaker is necessary, we’ll take a look at the comparable schedules for that week. We’ll have a Sunday rooting guide that covers that and more, but we’ll accompany FO’s draft pick odds with a look at the upcoming week’s schedule and who we want to win in matchups involving an opponent on the 49ers and/or Cardinals schedule.
Cardinals @ Falcons: Cardinals — Duh, although if Falcons win that does hurt the Cardinals SOS, so that’s a plus
Raiders @ Bengals: Raiders — Duh
Seahawks @ 49ers: Seahawks — although, beating them to prevent a playoff clinching this week would be moderately amusing
Titans @ Giants: Titans — NYG was 49ers opponent
Washington @ Jaguars: Washington — WAS was Cardinals opponent, although upside to Jaguars winning is some breathing room
Bucs @ Ravens: Ravens — TB was 49ers opponent
Texans @ Jets: Jets — Would like some breathing room
Lions @ Bills: Bills — Would like some breathing room