Well, so much for the No. 1 overall pick. The San Francisco 49ers beat the Seattle Seahawks last week to improve to 4-10, and slip out of the top spot in the draft order. The Arizona Cardinals and Oakland Raiders currently hold the top two spots with 3-11 records. The 49ers are now tied with the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars in spots three through five. The Jets have the weakest strength of schedule, followed by the 49ers, and then Jaguars.
The NFL kicks off Week 16 on Saturday now that Thursday Night Football is but a distant memory. And with the arrival of Week 16, we’re back for another look at Football Outsiders’ draft pick odds. They run simulations using weighted DVOA to assess playoff and draft pick odds each week. Through 15 weeks, Arizona is the overwhelming favorite to take home the top pick, wit a 74.9 percent chance. They are followed by Oakland at 17.2 percent, the Jets at 4.3 percent, and the 49ers at 3.6 percent.
We had been tracking strength of schedule between the 49ers and Cardinals, but now we’re looking at 49ers, Jets, and Jaguars. Each week, as long as the strength of schedule tiebreaker is necessary, we’ll take a look at the comparable schedules for that week. We’ll have a Sunday rooting guide that covers that and more, but we’ll accompany FO’s draft pick odds with a look at the upcoming week’s schedule and who we want to win in matchups involving an opponent on the 49ers and/or Jets and/or Jaguars schedule. We’ll also include Arizona and Oakland simply because of the chance to improve draft position with two weeks remaining,
Packers @ Jets: Jets — J! E! T! S! JETS! JETS! JETS!
Jaguars @ Dolphins: Jaguars — A little cushion would be welcome
Rams @ Cardinals: Cardinals — Unlikely, but maybe things get nutty.
Broncos @ Raiders: Raiders — Crazier things have happened. It’s worth noting that if the Broncos win, that strengths the Jets SOS, which we want.
Washington @ Titans: Titans — Strengthens Jaguars SOS
Bengals @ Browns: Browns — Strengths Jets SOS
Buccaneers @ Cowboys: Cowboys — Weakens 49ers SOS, strengthens Jaguars SOS
Giants @ Colts: Colts — Weakens 49ers SOS, strengths Jets and Jaguars SOS
Texans @ Eagles: Texans — Strengthens Jets and Jaguars SOS
Steelers @ Saints: Steelers — Strengthens Jaguars SOS
Chiefs @ Seahawks: Chiefs — Weakens 49ers SOS, strengthens Jets SOS